Deja Vu In The National League?

About a week or so ago, the Phillies trailed the Mets by three games in the National League East and the Brewers by four games for the Wild Card. Now, the Mets and Brewers are in the Phillies’ rearview mirror. Déjà vu of 2007? Perhaps, but the Phillies have a lot of work to do. Objects in the rearview mirror are closer than they appear.

The Mets’ most recent slide is mainly the result of a bullpen that is seemingly incapable of finishing off an opponent. Blame it on the loss of Billy Wagner if you want, but Wagner blew his fair share of games before he was injured. Hindsight is 20/20, but now you see why the Phillies refused to offer Wagner anything more than a three-year contract.

Aside from the bullpen, it astonishes me how often “experts” bash the Phillies’ alleged lack of starting pitching while the Mets have been inconsistent all year. Maybe it’s because their bullpen is so awful that it overshadows the holes in the rotation after Johan Santana and Mike Pelfrey.

The demise of the Brewers is tough to explain. Milwaukee brass decided to make manager Ned Yost the scapegoat, firing the mouthy skipper after the Brewers were swept in Philadelphia and dropped to a tie in the Wild Card race. The nosedive continued last night when ace CC Sabathia was unable to stop the bleeding. This team is more than talented enough to win the wildcard and go deep in the playoffs, but they need to win a game.

Meanwhile, the Phillies resurgence can largely be attributed to three players… Ryan Howard, Brett Myers and Jimmy Rollins. Ryan Howard still may set a single season strikeout record, but his early season struggles are a distant memory. Howard leads the majors in home runs and RBI by far and will merit serious MVP consideration if the Phillies make the playoffs.

Brett Myers has been arguably the best starting pitcher in the National League since being banished to the minors. His two-hit complete game win over the Brewers on three days rest was a masterpiece. Cole Hamels and Brett Myers may not have the resume or name recognition of Zambrano and Harden or Sabathia and Sheets, but they still form one heck of a one-two punch in a playoff series.

Jimmy Rollins is doing what he does best… getting hot when it matters most. Rollins makes the hitters behind him more effective and he’s finally leading more with his bat than his mouth.

There are other reasons for the Phillies’ rebirth. Cole Hamels is consistently brilliant. Jayson Werth has become a legit everyday right fielder. Brad Lidge hasn’t blown a save. The bullpen is not as dominant as it was earlier in the season, but it’s still among the best in the league. More than anything else, these Phillies have no doubt that they’re good enough to win the National League East again, while the Mets and Brewers are experiencing déjà vu all over again.

Feliz Navidad!

Fresh off the disabled list, Pedro Feliz provided the Phillies with two huge gifts last night. First, it was a two-out base hit to drive in the tying run in the bottom of the ninth. Then he followed it up with a dramatic 11th inning, two-out, walk-off three-run homer to give the Phillies a dramatic 5-2 win over the Dodgers, cutting the Mets NL East lead to a half game. Gracias, Pedro!

Meanwhile, the Mets bullpen blew another game and John Maine is facing possible season ending surgery. Former Yankees manager Bob Lemon once said, "The two most important things in life are good friends and a strong bullpen." What a genius. The Mets might have a near double digit division lead if their bullpen wasn't in shambles and the Phillies bullpen wasn't dominant.

Tonight, the Fightin's go for a four-game sweep of the Dodgers, who took four from the Phils in Los Angeles just last week. On the mound will be Philly's hottest starting pitcher, born again Brett Myers, who has renewed the faith of fans, teammates and management with a sub-2.00 ERA since returning from minor league exile.

This sets up a much anticipated two-game showdown with the Mets at Citizens Bank Park. With Billy Wagner gone and John Maine likely to follow, the Mets just don't have the depth to overcome these injuries. As the Mets nosedive, I expect the Phillies to use this mini-series as a springboard to the division title, but the offense will have to start clicking (that means you, Rollins) or it will come down to the wire again.

Phils In Phirst To Stay

A lot of pundits have criticized Phillies GM Pat Gillick for not making another deal at the deadline. Not me. Giving up a prime prospect for a situational lefty reliever would have been a mistake. The price for two months of Manny being Manny would have been too high, especially with the season Pat Burrell is having. Call me crazy, but I like how the Phillies are set up for the stretch run and beyond.

Cole Hamels is a top tier ace. While it’s too soon to say Brett Myers is “back”, his fastball is back in the 92-mph range, he has only allowed one home run in three starts and his control has improved. His head seems to be screwed on tight at the moment, but it doesn’t take much to knock the screw loose. The success of Myers is still the key to a deep playoff run.

Behind Hamels and Myers, you have the lone trade acquisition, Joe Blanton. While Blanton isn’t Sabathia or Harden, he's fresh from not pitching much at all in July and will help to keep the bullpen strong by throwing seven solid innings per start. You have the ageless Jamie Moyer, who has been remarkably consistent. And you have Kyle Kendrick, who probably wasn’t quite ready to be a number three starter at this stage of his career and is better suited to the lower pressure role of number five.

This rotation won’t clinch a World Series appearance, but it will keep the Phillies in the game on a daily basis so the offense can do its job while the bullpen continues to shut the door. Chase Utley is hitting the ball hard again. Ryan Howard’s batting average has risen to a nearly respectable .242 as he continues to hit when it counts. Shane Victorino’s hot July has carried over into August. Pat Burrell is having arguably his most consistent season as a pro. Jimmy Rollins said recently that he’s just starting to feel 100% healthy, which could be a sign of even better things.

When you consider that the Marlins’ only addition was Arthur Rhodes and the Mets didn’t do a darn thing, the N.L. East is Philadelphia’s to lose. This week’s Phillies-Marlins series could set the tone for the stretch run. Now that the Marlins have some of their young starters healthy to go along with a powerful offense, Florida is more of a threat than the Mets, who have proven to be even older and more brittle than I thought. If Mets fans are counting on Ryan Church to ride in on a white horse and Fernando Tatis to continue swatting late inning home runs to rescue Billy Wagner after a few more blown saves, I feel bad for them.

In acquiring Joe Blanton, I think the Phillies gave up a future star in second basemen Adrian Cardenas, who would never see the big leagues as a Phil. But the Phillies were smart to hold on to their solid young arms, even if they’re not in the phenom category. Carlos Carrasco. J.A. Happ. Joe Savery. Kyle Drabek, who recently returned from Tommy John surgery. Not a bad quartet right there. Barring a trade, Hamels, Myers, Blanton and Kendrick are locks for the 2009 rotation, under 30 and under contract. How many other teams can say that?

Getting back to the present… it may be a tough pill for Mets fans to swallow, but the Phillies are the most complete, durable team in an admittedly flawed division. The Phillies have climbed back to the top of the N.L. East and it would probably take underachieving of Mets-like proportions for the Fightins to lose it down the stretch.

Blanton Will Help, But Myers Is Key

Joe Blanton is not Rich Harden or CC Sabathia. He also doesn’t come with a price tag that includes Carlos Carrasco, Lou Marson or Shane Victorino. Joe Blanton will help stabilize the Phillies rotation and finally allow Charlie Manuel to banish the awful Adam Eaton to Clay Condrey territory in the Phillies bullpen. Joe Blanton is a mid-season pick-up in the mold of Kyle Lohse and Jamie Moyer, an unspectacular yet reliable innings eater who keeps the ball down and won’t give games away every fifth day.

By the way, hats off to GM Pat Gillick for showing restraint, especially during his swan song, when the remaining trade options weren’t worth the cost. Carrasco could claim a spot in the Phillies’ 2009 rotation. Lou Marson has a shot to be catching at Citizens Bank Park next year. J.A. Happ, fresh off a 12-strikeout performance at Triple A last night, seems to be finally putting it all together. Even 2007 first-round pick Joe Savery have been pitching well lately at Clearwater. Including any of these players in a trade for a rental like Erik Bedard or A.J. Burnett would have been a mistake. Joe Blanton is under contract through 2010 and is a virtual lock for 200-plus innings.

While Blanton is a solid addition, the key to the Phillies’ postseason dreams is still Brett Myers. Cole Hamels is clearly the ace, but it’s Myers who must step up and become a big-time number two. Myers is better than Blanton, Jamie Moyer and Kyle Kendrick and has the God-given ability to throw a gem anytime he takes the mound. Unfortunately, his head makes him just as likely to throw a fit. He needs to regain some of that cockiness and swagger that made him so effective in the past and stop acting as if every pitch is Armageddon.

The strikeout prone Phillies offense has shown it can be shut down, and teams don’t come back from seven or eight run deficits in the playoffs. If Brett Myers doesn’t become the second part of a strong one-two punch, the Phillies could be in trouble if they make it to October baseball. I still think the Mets and Marlins have too many holes to contend all season. Pedro Martinez is hurt again and trade options are limited because the Mets farm system is paper thin, while the Marlins just don’t have the cash. However, the Phillies could be looking at a repeat of last year’s postseason without the successful return of Brett Myers.

Lidge Extended, Myers' Fate Sealed?

The Phillies broke one of their own unwritten rules with a mid-season contract signing, locking up closer Brad Lidge to the tune of $37.5 million over three years. “Lights Out Lidge” has returned in a big way with 19 saves in 19 opportunities, 47 strikeouts in 35 innings and a 0.77 ERA.

I love this signing for a number of reasons. First, truly dominant closers are a rare breed and every championship team has one. Second, this is a “safe” Pat Gillick contract… high dollars, but a relatively short-term commitment, similar to the contract offered to Aaron Rowand. Chase Utley’s seven-year deal is a rare exception and the $12 million per year average is already a bargain for the annual MVP contender.

Finally, this officially closes the door on Brett Myers returning to the closer role in Philadelphia, regardless of how much he craves it. While Myers was brilliant down the stretch last season, he just doesn’t compare to Lidge. Myers had a 2.87 ERA as a reliever. Very solid, but hardly dominant for a top tier closer. Myers doesn’t throw as hard as Lidge, whose slider also happens to be one of the nastiest pitches in major league baseball.

While the struggles of Myers this season have been well-documented and his contract may scare away some teams ($8.5 million this season, $12 million next season), he could be included in a package for a top flight starter. Just 27 years old with a rubber arm, Myers is a relatively low risk, high reward player. He has a few solid big league seasons under his belt and could easily return to form with a change of scenery, much like Brad Lidge. He has the tools to be a solid number two or three starter, but would likely perform better as a closer, if only because of his attitude and temperament.

The Phillies don’t have the prospects to land C.C Sabathia or Rich Harden, or the desire to meet what will surely be Johan-esque contract demands by Sabathia. However, they could get creative and may have other starters on their radar. Think Erik Bedard or A.J. Burnett, although both would come with health concerns. Roy Oswalt could be an outside possibility, but Houston GM Ed Wade is still licking his wounds from the Lidge trade and owner Drayton McLane says the team won’t be broken up. With Oswalt's $15 million-per-year price tag through 2011, that could always change.

I honestly hope Myers regains his footing at Triple A and returns to the rotation because he has so much natural ability and he’s a homegrown Phillie. But now that Lidge will be closing games until 2011, if the Phillies can use Myers to acquire a top flight starter, I’ll be first in line to cut the cord.

What To Do With Myers

Phillies manager Charlie Manuel and pitching coach Rich Dubee can’t say for sure if Brett Myers will take the mound when his next turn in the rotation comes up. Blowing a 5-1 lead may have been the last straw. The most maddening thing about Myers is that the source of his troubles is and always has been from the neck up.

While his velocity is down, that might be because Myers simply has no faith in his fastball. His stuff is so good that he may go out and throw a three-hit shutout, or he could continue to experience first inning meltdowns and add to his league-leading total of home runs allowed.

Myers has been famously temperamental from his rookie days when Curt Schilling told him to keep quiet and know his place, to an ugly incident with his wife in Boston, to this season’s abomination. The problem is obvious. The solution is not. Although the Phillies are still in first place after a horrible performance in interleague play, they simply can’t afford to give games away every fifth day.

The most popular solution seems to be to move Myers to the bullpen and insert Chad Durbin into the starting rotation. I think this would be a big mistake. Why break up one of the best bullpens in baseball? Durbin is the most versatile and maybe the most valuable member of the ‘pen outside of Brad Lidge. Because Kyle Kendrick, Jamie Moyer and Adam Eaton are far from locks to pitch deep into games, the Phillies are probably better served by keeping the bullpen intact and keeping everyone fresh. Also, Myers' biggest problem has been giving up runs in the first inning. That won't help the bullpen.

Another option is to skip his turn in the rotation and try to work out the kinks on the side. This could drive someone like Myers crazy. He can’t sit still and needs to pitch. He loved being the closer because he could pitch a few times a week.

Yet another more far-fetched but sensible option is to send Myers to the minors for a few starts so he can regain confidence in his fastball in real game situations without the pressure of costing the Phillies another game. This could either solve the problem or do irreparable damage to an already fragile psyche.

What else can you do? Wait for Kris Benson to be ready? That’s quite a gamble. Trade for a starter? The Phillies don’t have prospects to trade if they expect to receive a difference maker in return, although Shane Victorino or Pat Burrell would be available for the right player. Include Myers in a trade, possibly to a team that needs a closer? Intriguing, but his value is at an all-time low and it will be tough to find a good fit.

I hate to say it, but I think the Phillies should ride it out until the All-Star break, which is only two weeks away. After Adam Eaton’s 2007 debacle was tolerated all season (possibly because of a lack of alternatives), I think you have to give your Opening Day starter a long leash, especially when he has as much natural talent as Myers. If he doesn’t turn it around, all bets are off and he'll just have to deal with the consequences.

Howard's Turn: Deep Cuts

Ryan Howard has teased us a few times this season with mammoth home runs that we thought would lift him out of a season-long funk. Inevitably, he always seemed to regress to an 0-for-4, two strikeout performance as his batting average continued to hover around .200. But finally, it looks like it’s Howard’s turn to take some deep cuts.

The two strikeouts from last night’s game are much easier to deal with when you see two opposite field home runs and a triple in the box score. All of the sudden, Howard is tied with Chase Utley for the league lead in RBI with 62, while Howard’s 19 home runs are quickly reeling in his more consistent teammate. That unsightly batting average has crept up to .224, not too far from respectability. More importantly, round one of this potential World Series preview against the Red Sox goes to the Phillies as they maintain a three-game lead over those pesky Marlins.

Ryan Howard is doing what he was doing during his MVP season. He’s waiting on pitches, driving fastballs to left field and turning on offspeed offerings. Although he seems like a lock to break his own season strikeout record, Howard is also being more selective at the plate instead of trying to justify his $10 million salary with every at-bat. Heck, he even stole a base.

Fortunately for the Phillies, Howard has gotten hot as the Fightins endure a particularly brutal part of the June schedule, which includes games against Florida, Atlanta, St. Louis, Boston, Oakland and the L.A. Angels.

Maybe it’s the comfort of being in first place. Maybe it’s the realization that the Phillies are operating on all cylinders and he can just relax. Maybe it's the ever-patient, even-keeled Charlie Manuel, who never lost confidence in his stud first baseman. Maybe it was the luxury of sleeping in his own bed when the Phillies visited St. Louis over the weekend that led to six hits and nine RBI in that series. Maybe it’s just time for one of baseball’s most dangerous sluggers to get hot. No player in baseball can carry a team’s offense any better than Ryan Howard. Now it appears to be Howard’s turn, so enjoy the deep cuts.

This blog is meant to celebrate Ryan Howard’s turnaround, but I have to get this off my chest. Yes, I hate the Mets, and I hate them even more after the way they’ve handled the dismissal of Willie Randolph. Shame on Mets brass for dragging out this process for so long and waiting to fire Randolph until they were on the West Coast. I’m not saying the termination was unjustified, but show a little class. Looks like the play on the field is more of a reflection of ownership and upper management, not Willie Randolph.

Charlie Says Hustle

Here’s another reason why the Phillies are 10 games over .500 with a 2.5 game lead in the National League East as they head to a Atlanta for a weekend series with the Braves.

With two outs in the third inning of yesterday’s 5-0 win over the Reds, Jimmy Rollins hit a weak pop-up to shortstop Paul Janish. Assuming it would be easily caught for the third out, Rollins casually sauntered down to first base. When the ball fell and Carlos Ruiz scored the game’s first run, Rollins stood at first base instead of second.

When the inning ended, Phillies manager Charlie Manuel told Rollins to grab a seat on the bench for the rest of the game. Manuel replaced Rollins with Eric Bruntlett, who later preserved Cole Hamels’ brilliant shutout by diving to snag a ground ball and throwing out the runner at first.

The Phillies field a team with plenty of stars, but there are no stars in Charlie Manuel’s clubhouse. Jimmy Rollins is a vocal team leader, the offensive catalyst and reigning league MVP, but Manuel didn’t think twice about sitting Rollins in a close game. Manuel handled it quietly, and only mentioned it briefly when asked after the game.

Nobody is above the law with Charlie Manuel, whether you’re a superstar or the fifth outfielder. I’ve said my piece more than once about Manuel’s strategy and decision-making during the game, but he has the respect of every single one of his players, and they don’t dare cross him.

Rollins’ response to the benching speaks volumes as well. "He has two rules,” said Rollins of his manager. “Be on time and hustle, and I broke one of them today. I know better." Rollins didn’t get angry, throw a tantrum or vent to the media. “It’s my fault,” Rollins said. “That’s like breaking the law and getting mad when the police show up.”

I love the fact that Rollins, arguably the biggest “star” on the Phillies, compares not hustling to breaking the law. He got busted, did his time and took it like a man. Charlie Manuel made his point. The rest of the team got the point. No feathers ruffled, no egos damaged. Just another win.

Homegrown Phils Set For Draft Reload

Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Pat Burrell pace the offense. Cole Hamels, Brett Myers and Kyle Kendrick anchor the starting rotation. Not many teams can claim to have such a powerful, homegrown core. Now, it’s time to start reloading.

With their first pick in the 2008 draft, the Phillies grabbed high school shortstop Anthony Hewitt, a New York product whose stock has been on the rise. The Phillies tend to prefer young players with natural ability and high ceilings over more tested college players, and this selection is no exception. Hewitt is a great athlete with a good arm and good speed.

Yes, Jimmy Rollins is entrenched at shortstop, but in the first round, you have to take the best player, regardless of position or need. And think about it… didn’t the best player on your high school team always play shortstop?

The Phillies are excited about this year’s draft, with seven of the first 136 selections as they continue to replenish a farm system that was ravaged by trades during the Ed Wade era. As more and more teams opt to lock up young players and rely less on free agency, the draft is becoming more and more relevant. MLB isn’t like the NFL, NBA or NHL, where rookie draft picks become instant stars. Utley and Howard became regulars in their mid-20’s, although Howard’s path to stardom was temporarily blocked by Jim Thome.

Not only that, but the best player’s “signability” could drop him from the first pick to the bottom half of the first round or lower, where he will still have the same contract demands. In other leagues, if signability is a factor, the player may slide down one or two slots. This is part of what makes MLB’s draft so unpredictable and good scouting so important. Here’s a progress report on the Fightins’ last three first-round picks.

Last year, the Phillies grabbed Joe Savery, a cocky lefthanded college pitcher (and heavy duty hitter) who expected to be in the big leagues sometime this season. His inconsistency at Class A Clearwater will put that promotion on hold. Savery is 2-6 with a 4.63 ERA, allowing 83 hits in 68 innings. He has the tools, but needs to be more precise with his pitches and stay focused.

In 2006, many experts said high school phenom Kyle Drabek, son of Cy Young Award winner Doug Drabek, had the best stuff in the draft. They also said he had a bad temper and he was arrested for public intoxication. After Tommy John surgery last July, the jury is still out on his stuff, but an injury like this can speed up the mental maturity process. At age 20, Drabek still has plenty of time to develop. He’ll start throwing off a mound soon and is likely return to the field this fall.

2005 first-round pick Greg Golson struggled for a year and a half with the Blueclaws, then started to show progress after a promotion to Clearwater. After spending Spring Training with the Phillies, Golson has exploded at Class AA Reading, batting .329 with impressive speed and power (16 stolen bases and seven home runs). He still needs to cut down on his strikeouts (65 in 213 at-bats), but the speedy 22-year-old centerfielder may compete for a big league roster spot next spring, especially if Burrell isn’t resigned.

Phils Hummin', Mets Bummin'

In the Phillies four most recent wins, they’ve scored 12, 7, 15 and 20 runs. They won't keep up this pace, but I think it’s safe to say that the Phillies offense is starting to gel.

It all starts with the big three. Reigning MVP Jimmy Rollins has returned to full strength as one of the league’s most dangerous leadoff hitters, batting .319, stealing bases, playing great defense and providing leadership in the clubhouse. Chase Utley has rebounded from his mini-slump to get his numbers back to MVP levels (.309 BA, 16 HR, 42 RBI), although Lance Berkman gets the nod at this point. Ryan Howard’s batting average is still hovering around the Mendoza line (.207) and with 75 strikeouts, he’ll likely obliterate his own single season record. Amazingly, he has managed to join the league leaders with 14 home runs and 37 RBI.

Pat Burrell is hitting home runs when they count and continues to play himself into a hefty free agent payday. Offseason upgrades Pedro Feliz and Geoff Jenkins have rebounded from slow starts to post solid numbers. Shane Victorino has recovered from his injury and boosted his average to .273 while stealing nine bases to make the temporary loss of Jayson Werth manageable. The only regular who isn’t hitting right now is Carlos Ruiz, but “backup” Chris Coste is mashing to the tune of .342 and four dingers in part-time duty. Greg Dobbs is batting .358 and has become one of league’s premier pinch hitters.

Phillies starting pitching continues to be a concern, but the offense is giving pitchers time to work out the kinks and the bullpen has been brilliant. Note to Pat Gillick… please don’t let Brad Lidge become a free agent. Lights out closers don’t come along everyday and Lidge is better than Brett Myers at closing out games.

Meanwhile, the Mets continue to prove that they’re overrated. Before the season, I said the Mets were old and brittle. Carlos Delgado and Luis Castillo are clearly acting old. Pedro Martinez, Orlando Hernandez and Moises Alou are clearly brittle. Jose Reyes is clearly a diva who is easily distracted. I like this team less and less everyday. I do feel bad for Willie Randolph, who has become the scapegoat.

Right now, the Phillies are hummin’ like James Bond’s Aston Martin, while the Mets are sputtering like Dwight Schrute’s Camaro and bickering like old ladies playing a high stakes game of canasta. Hate to say “I told you so,” but…

Why The Mets Can't Hang With The Phillies

While the Phillies moved into a tie with the Marlins for first place in the National League East Friday night, the Mets were having a team meeting to “clear the air.”

Reigning MVP Jimmy Rollins has spent a good chunk of the season as a spectator. Former MVP Ryan Howard has only started to hit in the last week or so to improve his batting average to a whopping .188, while his 60 strikeouts have caused an overly breezy spring in Philadelphia. Opening Day starter Brett Myers’ ERA (5.91) is among the worst in the league for a starting pitcher. Yet, as of today, the Phillies are two games ahead of the Mets in the standings.

In Flushing (very appropriate), Omar Minaya has to publicly state that manager Willie Randolph’s job is safe. Willie Randolph has to publicly state that pitching coach Rick Peterson’s job is safe. Billy Wagner continues to rip his teammates. Jose Reyes continues to sulk. On the bright side, a statue has been erected on the field at Shea. Wait a minute… that’s Carlos Delgado. Oops.

Meanwhile, free agent signing Geoff Jenkins, who has one at-bat in the last week while the Phillies have faced a bunch of lefties, doesn’t complain. He’s frustrated, but he understands that his role is to face righties and the team is better with Jayson Werth (3 HR, 8 RBI last night) in the lineup against lefties. Pat Burrell wishes Charlie Manuel wouldn’t pull him for defense late in games as he plays for a new contract, but he doesn’t rock the boat. Even combustible Brett Myers is shockingly calm has he continues to struggle.

Will the Mets’ private team meeting solve their problems? Perhaps. But with some of the divas in that locker room, I have my doubts. The Phillies haven’t had problems like this in the locker room, not coincidentally, since Billy Wagner left. His mouth moves as fast as his upper-90’s heater. If he could only control his mouth like he controls his pitches, that team meeting may have been a lot shorter.

Feel free to claim that team chemistry is overrated, but look at the results on the field last year and this year. The Phillies are no more talented than the Mets. Charlie Manuel is not a better manager than Willie Randolph. But if that chemistry can will a team to a few extra wins, that could be the difference between a postseason appearance and a major disappointment. Just ask the 2007 Mets… and the 2008 Mets.

How Are The Phils In Phirst?

Reigning National League MVP Jimmy Rollins has missed most of the season. 2006 National League MVP Ryan Howard is invoking images of Rob Deer, whose final season strikeout total and batting average were nearly identical. So how in the name of Steve Jeltz are these Phillies in first?

Utley’s MVP Chase: Last year’s MVP run was derailed when he was hit by pitch. It doesn’t look like anything can stop Utley this season. The stat line is staggering. .369 BA, 13 HR, 26 RBI. I’ve never seen a batter hit the ball so hard with such a short swing.

Cole Play: Hamels has been brilliant, maybe even more so than expected. Phils fans should be doing cartwheels knowing that they have a bonafide ace at the top of the rotation who’s only 24. Hamels has shown maturity by not trying to strikeout every batter, and right now, I’d say he’s outperforming a certain mega-millionaire named Johan.

Jayson’s Werth: When Rollins and Victorino went down, Werth filled two critical holes in centerfield and the top of the lineup. He hasn’t torn the cover off the ball, but the offense has been more than steady, while some argue his defense has been better than Victorino’s.

Pat’s Bat: Hey Manuel, stop yanking Burrell for defense at the end of every close game. You just might need him to win a game for you like he did Friday night. Pat Burrell is in the final year of his contract and he’s playing his way into big bucks (.320, 9 HR, 28 RBI). By the way Charlie, it’s time to flip-flop Burrell and Howard, who’s 0-for-9 with six strikeouts in his last two games, bringing his season total to a mind-blowing 45.

Gillick’s Gamble: Pat took a chance when he traded for Brad Lidge, but he looks to be holding all aces right now. Lidge is 7-for-7 in save opportunities, has yet to allow an earned run, and his velocity his back. The “other guy” in that trade, Eric Bruntlett, preserved at least one win with his defense and has been a capable replacement while Rollins heals.

Bullish Pen: Aside from Lidge, Charlie Manuel has plenty of reliable options. Tom Gordon has been lights out since his Opening Day disaster. J.C. Romero picked up where he left off last year. Chad Durbin and Rudy Seanez both have sub-2.00 ERA’s, and more help could be on the way. Lefty prospects Josh Outman and Fabio Castro have been removed from the Double A rotation and one could be joining the Phillies at some point to provide another lefty option.

As the Braves and Mets continue to struggle, you have to like the Phillies’ chances to stay atop the N.L. East. Jimmy Rollins should return this week. Brett Myers has rediscovered the zip on his fastball. Kyle Kendrick has cut down on the free passes. Howard can’t stink like this much longer. Even Adam Eaton is giving the Phillies quality outings. It will go down to the wire, but the Phillies won’t be seven games out with 17 to play.

Bad Time Charlie, Part Deux

While Charlie Manuel will never be confused with an Ivy League scholar, he is a major league manager with a postseason resume. I know for a fact that he does have some level of baseball acumen. If that’s the case, why in the name of all that’s reasonable would you call upon Ryan Howard and his batting average that’s comparable to Shane Victorino’s weight to pinch hit late in a tight game when that experiment failed the day before???

The Phillies are leading 6-5 in the eighth inning. Greg Dobbs, an accomplished pinch hitter, leads off with a walk. This is when you play small ball and manufacture an insurance run. Send someone to the plate who can make contact or lay down a sacrifice bunt if necessary to move the runner into scoring position.

What does Charlie Manuel do? He brings in Ryan Howard and his 34 strikeouts to pinch hit. What does Pirates manager and former Phillies minor league manager John Russell do? He motions to the bullpen, touches his left arm, and hands the ball to lefty Damaso Marte. Sure, Marte entered the game with an 8.38 ERA, but it didn’t matter. He could have placed the ball on a tee and Howard wouldn’t have been able to hit it. The obvious result? Strikeout number 35 on a slider low and away. Deja-damn-vu!

Sometimes Charlie Manuel is like the lab rat that repeatedly shocks itself when it thinks it’s grabbing a piece of cheese. It didn’t work last time. Howard hasn’t been hitting all season. His confidence is at an all-time low. After these two pinch hitting debacles, do you think Howard has cleared his head after not starting back-to-back games? Now what do you do? Stick him back in the lineup and hope his hitting ails have been cured?

Fortunately, the Phillies bullpen combo of Gordon-Romero-Lidge was brilliant and held the Pirates scoreless to preserve the 6-5 win. I guarantee that Manuel would be under much more scrutiny if the Phillies lost either one of these games. There are good times and bad times for using Ryan Howard as a pinch hitter. This was another bad time, Charlie!

Bad Time Charlie

What’s a good remedy for the worst slump of a young slugger’s career? If you ask Phillies manager Charlie Manuel, you tell him that he’ll have a game or two off so he can clear his head. But instead of letting him sit, you send him up to pinch hit in a 1-1 game, on the road, to lead off the eighth inning!

The result was predictable. Ryan Howard, not accustomed to a pinch hitting role and batting well below .200, promptly struck out. If you want Howard to snap out of his funk, this was a bad time, Charlie! Why didn’t you just tell him to lie down in the dugout and give him a swift kick in the ribs? That may have been less painful than his 33rd strikeout of the season.

If the game is tied late, wouldn’t it make sense to lead off the inning with a guy who’s more likely to make contact and get on base? Instead, you put your slumping slugger into a pressure situation and send his batting average and confidence even further south of the Mendoza line. If you’re going to give Howard a couple days off to clear his head, let him clear it! Don’t fill it with more doubt!

Fortunately, the two guys who have carried the Phillies offense, Chase Utley and Pat Burrell, provided the necessary offense later in the inning to give the Phillies a 3-1 win over the Brewers in Milwaukee.

This move made about as much sense as using Geoff Jenkins, another strikeout artist, as a pinch hitter when contact is a must in a close game. This has already happened more than once this season.

I think Manuel has held up incredibly well under the pressure from Philadelphia fans and media while keeping his players loose, but his in-game decisions continue to boggle my mind. For future reference, if a guy is in a ridiculous slump, don’t send him to the plate as a pinch hitter in the eighth inning of a tie game on the road. It’s a bad time, Charlie!

Howard Flounders, Fans Sour

There’s no shame in getting shut down by Johan Santana. That’s exactly what happened Friday to Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard, who went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts. Saturday, it was Oliver Perez, a solid big league lefty, along with lefties Pedro Feliciano and Billy Wagner. The results? 0-for-5, three strikeouts. Visible frustration. Unfamiliar boos. Another loss to the Mets.

The big guy finally broke through Sunday night with a single against righthander Mike Pelfrey as the Phillies salvaged the final game of the series, but the totals for the three-game set were ugly. 1-for-13, six strikeouts.

Howard admits that he’s uncomfortable at the plate right now and the Phillies have faced their share of tough lefties. The season is still young and there’s plenty of time to turn things around, as he did last year after an awful start and a trip to the disabled list.

This is a little different though. I was there Saturday night and I don’t recall another time when Ryan Howard was heartily booed. The stakes are obviously higher when the Phillies play the Mets. Just ask the group of idiots in the stands on the first base side who were removed in handcuffs for fighting in the ninth inning.

Howard isn’t just fanning at breaking balls low and away. He’s swinging and missing at fastballs right down the middle. With Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino already sidelined, Charlie Manuel is already struggling to fill those spots in the batting order and can’t afford to give Howard a day off. With those two table setters missing, Howard isn’t batting with runners in scoring position as much, but pitchers are still going right after him… and winning. By the way, the Phillies don’t have a day off until next Monday.

I’m confident that Ryan Howard will snap out of it, but big time hitters find a way to do damage against both righties and lefties. Against a steady dose of lefties on Saturday, lefty hitting Chase Utley, an admittedly different kind of hitter with a more level swing, hit a home run, a single and just missed another home run when he took a Billy Wagner offering to the wall in centerfield.

Big time hitters also respond to adversity. For the first time in his career, it looks like the pressure may be getting to Ryan Howard. Things have always come easy to him, but not now, not when the Phillies need an extra jolt of offense without Rollins and Victorino. Howard is noticeably upset and so are the fans. How he responds to this slump, both on and off the field, will be very telling.

Hamels On Doorstep Of Elite Status

Major League Baseball doesn’t have many truly elite pitchers. Johan Santana, Jake Peavy and a handful of others. This list could start an endless debate, so I’m not going there. My point is that this list will have a new member soon.

A few weeks ago, I said Cole Hamels would be as good as or better than Johan Santana in two years. I think I grossly underestimated Hamels’ ascension.

The Phillies knew Cole Hamels was destined for greatness from the time he stepped on a mound. In his debut with the Class A Lakewood Blueclaws here at the Jersey Shore, Hamels went five innings, surrendering one hit and two walks while striking out eight.

But his runaway train to the majors was derailed more than once. Elbow soreness caused Hamels to miss all but four starts in 2004. During the offseason, he broke his hand in a bar fight. In 2005, he was shut down for the season in July with back spasms after being promoted to Class A Reading.

Hamels learned two valuable lessons. First, if you want to even make it to the big leagues, grow up and get your head straight. Second, make sure you’re physically prepared or you’ll have a short career.

Hamels returned to full strength in 2006 and again dominated the minors for a month before receiving his call to the big leagues. His career minor league numbers: 14-4, 1.43 ERA, 273 strikeouts in 195.1 innings.

His major league debut was strikingly similar to his Blueclaws debut. Five innings, one hit, seven strikeouts, five walks. Another lesson learned. Big league hitters don’t hack at those pitches outside the strike zone that whiffed minor leaguers, so you need to be more precise with your location. Hamels struggled early, but went 7-3 with a 2.70 ERA in his final 12 starts to show a glimpse of what he could do.

A lot of things came together in 2007. An All-Star appearance. An improbably post-season run. 15-5 with a 3.36 ERA. But a left elbow strain sidelined Hamels for a month and again prevented him from truly breaking out. Fortunately, he showed know ill effects upon returning from the disabled list, pitching eight scoreless innings and striking out 13 in his final regular season start.

The 2008 numbers through three starts are brilliant. 2-1, 0.82 ERA, 22 IP, 15 K. But those numbers don’t tell the whole story. After last night’s performance (7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 5 K, 2 BB), Hamels said he “lucked out” and Cubs hitters allowed him to “get away with a poor game,” so he’ll have to work harder. This is a far cry from the cocky kid who got in a bar fight after possibly taking his immense talent for granted.

The biggest speed bump for Cole Hamels on the way to elite status has always been Cole Hamels. That speed bump is gone. Yes, he has an injury history, which will dog him until he completes a season unscathed… although legend has it that his knee buckling changeup actually became even better after he broke his left arm as a junior in high school. The handful of elite major league pitchers will have a new member by season’s end. Hamels is on the doorstep.

Woe-Phil Without Rollins & Other Nuggets

No, he’s not your prototypical leadoff hitter. His on-base percentage is below average. He doesn’t work the count enough. He doesn’t walk nearly enough. But anyone who says Jimmy Rollins is not the catalyst of the Phillies’ offense obviously wasn’t watching the last two nights.

You can’t expect Eric Bruntlett to fill Rollins’ custom made spikes, but he went 1-for-10 in two games and made two ugly, costly errors Wednesday night. The Phillies are obviously a much more confident team with Rollins at the top of the lineup. He gives this team its swagger. And in case you forgot, he’s the reigning N.L. MVP. It’s only two games, but the Phillies need Rollins in the lineup and at his best to make the offense jump from dangerous to lethal.

Round 1 of Phillies vs. Mets goes to the home team after a questionable call to end the game that was probably too close to seriously protest. The Phillies need Rollins and the Mets need to find a reliable arm in a very shaky bullpen. Rollins will be back soon, but where is that bullpen arm for the Mets?

Kyle Kendrick needs a few personal tutoring sessions with Jamie Moyer. Moyer teaches young pitchers to try to hit a target whenever they throw a baseball, whether they’re on the mound, in the bullpen or playing catch in the outfield. Kendrick’s location has been off all spring, culminating with six walks in the first two innings of Wednesday’s loss to the Mets. Fortunately, when he does make hitters swing, he’s not giving up big hits and somehow manages to pitch out of jams. More importantly, Kendrick never gets rattled. I still think he can be a solid number three behind Hamels and Myers for years to come.

Expect to see more of catcher Chris Coste as the season progresses. Like John Kruk has pointed out, pitchers love throwing to Coste. He calls a great game, he’s better defensively and he has a knack for clutch hits. For example, when Kendrick was struggling with his control, he was ahead in the count and Carlos Ruiz called for a fastball and set a letter high target. Kendrick, a sinkerballer who works the corners and the knees, has at least three better pitches than that for putting hitters away.

Shane Victorino’s early season struggles can be summed up in two words: Davey Lopes. Nobody embraced Lopes’ instruction in the batter’s box and on the basepaths more than Victorino. Rollins’ ankle injury, while not serious, now puts more pressure on Victorino to make things happen. He looks lost at times without the presence of Lopes, who is recovering from prostate cancer surgery. On the positive side, Victorino’s brilliant defense in centerfield has made his offensive slump more tolerable.

I love the Phillies bullpen. J.C. Romero has yet to give up a run. Neither has Rudy Seanez, who was salvaged off the scrap heap like Romero. Chad Durbin has been solid. Tom Gordon had an awful Opening Day debut and gave up the winning run last night, but he’s still reliable. Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge are both healthy. Lefty Steve Kline, another reclamation project, has been signed and could give the Phillies another option from the left side. I can’t figure out why the Mets aren’t taking a chance on guys like these.

Two solid outings and no wins for Adam Eaton. Last year, Eaton somehow managed 10 wins and a .500 record with a 6.29 ERA. Life has a way of evening things out, don’t you think? I’m still in shock but very encouraged by Eaton’s performance thus far.

Eaton Good In The Neighborhood

Adam Eaton's first start of the season Saturday began ominously.

Eaton walked leadoff batter Corey Patterson on four pitches, and Patterson eventually scored. After the first inning, the Reds led 1-0.

Another walk in the second inning contributed to another run. After two, the Reds led 2-0.

Was anyone else having flashbacks to 2007? 6.29 ERA, worst in the league among starters. Phantom injuries. Nightmares of an asenine three-year contract at more than $8 million per year. Eaton was about to completely unravel... again.

What ensued could be compared to turning water into wine. 16 of 18 batters retired. 78 pitches through seven innings. Sure, he gave up a game-tying home run to Patterson in the eighth inning and the Phillies went on to lose the game, but Adam Eaton was darn near dominant.

Last year, Eaton pitched at least seven innings exactly four times in 30 starts. On this day, he went 7 2/3 innings and gave up three earned runs. I just pinched myself.

Yes, Adam Eaton's contract is still ludicrous for a pitcher who never really had a good season. Yes, it's way too early to proclaim Adam Eaton a Cy Young contender. And yes, deep down, I can't help but think that he still stinks. But for one day, Eaton was good in the neighborhood, and some Phillies fans are now, dare I say, optimistic with regards to Adam Eaton.

Phillies Opening Series Notes & An Ode To Pedro

I remember driving home from Phillies Opening Day last year after they lost to the Braves. Some Phillies fans were already calling radio stations and demanding Charlie Manuel’s firing. Gotta love the passion, but let’s take a deep breath. It’s waaay to early to pass judgment on any team. Here are some observations after the Phillies opening series against the Nationals, along with an ode to poor Pedro.

· It was good to see the Phillies bang out 16 hits in the series finale after being held to one hit by Tim Redding (yes, Tim Redding) the night before. You love to see this lineup go deep, but when 13 of the 16 hits are singles, including seven in a row, you know that Phillies hitters are taking what pitchers give them instead of swinging for the fences. That’s a good thing.

· Everyone’s favorite feel-good story, catcher Chris Coste, went deep for the Phillies yesterday. I really think Coste and starting catcher Carlos Ruiz will provide quite a bit of pop from the eighth spot in the batting order.

· Pitching in a tough loss on Wednesday, Cole Hamels proved that pre-season pitching numbers don’t mean squat unless you’re competing for a job. He could give Johan Santana a run for the Cy Young Award this year.

· News flash… no lead is safe against the Phillies offense. They can put six on the board in a hurry, so opposing managers will have to be extra careful with their bullpen choices when they think a game is in hand.

· I won’t kill Charlie Manuel for pulling Brett Myers for a pinch hitter after five innings and 86 pitches on Monday. Myers clearly didn’t have his best stuff and the Phillies had a runner on base. But Manuel is notorious for pulling his starters anytime after five innings when the Phillies are behind, or when they get anywhere near 100 pitches. They’re your starters for a reason, Charlie. Let them take you deep into games, especially Myers and Hamels, even if it means occasionally letting them hit with runners on base in tight games.

· Ode to Poor Pedro: I was scoffed at when I said Pedro Martinez is now a six-inning pitcher who is guaranteed to miss at least five starts. He may meet that quota by early May. I don't relish any player's injury, but let’s face it. Pedro was once a great pitcher, but he’s never been a gym rat and hamstring injuries tend to linger. The best the Mets can probably hope for from Pedro and their other ancient starter, Orlando Hernandez, is to get 15-20 starts from each of them and have them healthy for the post-season if the Mets get there. And that’s a big IF. The Mets have no depth and question marks throughout the lineup, and I have a feeling they could have trouble keeping their collective heads above water. I’m not writing off the Mets. I’m just not sold on them as a “can’t miss” contender.

Maybe The Phils Should Concede. Or Not.

With everything I’m hearing from the so-called experts about the mighty Mets, the defending NL East champion Phillies should just stay home. Some pundits even predict the Phillies can’t keep up with the Braves.

Yes, the Mets added Johan Santana, the best starting pitcher in baseball. News flash: While this move will surely improve the Mets, it was an act of desperation by a GM who realizes the window is quickly closing on this aging, fragile team’s chance to win a World Series.

Besides Santana, the Mets added Ryan Church and Brian Schneider. Think the fans in Flushing would like to see Lastings Milledge, the formerly untouchable prospect who once could have been traded for top flight starting pitching, manning one of the corner outfield positions right about now?

Meanwhile, the Phillies made a huge upgrade offensively and defensively at third base with Pedro Feliz. They’ll replace Aaron Rowand’s career year on offense with Geoff Jenkins and Jayson Werth, while Shane Victorino has a better arm and more range in centerfield.

Say what you want about the Phillies rotation, but the Mets have nothing but question marks after Johan Santana. The Phillies didn’t have the prospects or resources to acquire and sign Santana, so they traded for Brad Lidge and put Brett Myers, who is better than any free agent pitcher that was available, back in the rotation. With Cole Hamels, the Phillies now have two young studs forming a formidable 1-2 punch that every playoff team has at the top of the rotation, while Pedro Martinez is a six-inning pitcher and a lock to miss at least five starts.

Kyle Kendrick went 10-4 with a 3.84 ERA over 20 starts, including many at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park. Jamie Moyer is still very steady, he pitched a gem in the playoffs when it mattered most, and he’s valuable off the field as a mentor to the younger pitchers. I'll take that kind of consistency over John Maine and Oliver Perez, who pitch like Tom Seaver one day and Mike Seaver (Growing Pains) five days later.

The Mets are as durable as a wet tissue. Moises Alou gets his mail at the hospital. Carlos Delgado became old overnight. Luis Castillo has two bad knees. Even Carlos Beltran had offseason surgery on both knees and hasn’t batted over .276 in the last four seasons. Brad Lidge is the only injured Phillies player and he’s being temporarily held back as a precaution.

By the way, the Phillies offense is downright scary. The Mets offense isn't even average. The only people scared by the Mets offense are Mets lovers, and not in a good way.

Finally, people who say team chemistry is overrated must be blind. The Phillies wouldn’t have finished above .500 last season without the chemistry that developed after the All-Star break, and the Mets wouldn’t have collapsed if they had an ounce of it. I’ll always remember the Phillies coming back from injury after injury, and Jose Reyes getting reamed for not running out a ground ball.

I could go on and on, but I’ll take Broad Street over Broadway this season and for the next five seasons as the Phillies again use their underdog status as extra motivation. Keep reading your press clippings, Mets fans.

Spring Training Notes & Observations

Random Phillies observations from Spring Training that could prove to be significant as the regular season gets underway…

1-2 punch. Brett Myers seems locked in as he returns to a starting role, posting a sparkling 1.13 ERA and holding the Yankees scoreless for five innings in his final spring start. Myers has always had dominant stuff and may finally be putting it all together. Cole Hamels didn’t dominate, but he stunk last year during the pre-season and did just fine. Phillies fans couldn’t ask for much more at the top of the rotation. As for the bottom of the rotation…

Eaton still stinks. Adam Eaton teased us with a couple decent outings, then tossed a clunker against the Yankees in the Spring Training finale. I’m praying that Charlie Manuel keeps Eaton on a short leash so the Phillies aren’t giving away games every fifth day.

Starting pitching insurance. Kris Benson accepted a minor league assignment instead of exercising his option to become a free agent and hopes to be ready in May. The Giants did not want to take on the contract of Rule 5 draft pick Travis Blackley, and the lefthander chose to accept a Triple A assignment with the Phillies. Having these two starters on-call will prevent the Phillies from rushing prospects like Carlos Carrasco, Josh Outman and Andrew Carpenter.

Historic Howard? I’ve said before that I think Ryan Howard will put up historic numbers this year. His preseason numbers did nothing to change my mind. .311 BA, 5 HR, 12 RBI. As for those 19 strikeouts…

Swingin’ and missin’. You can pretty much pencil in Ryan Howard for 175 strikeouts, Pat Burrell for 150 and Geoff Jenkins/Jason Werth for 125… and there are others who will have quite a few K’s next to their names on the scorecard. The lineup is devastating, but a strikeout artist can shut them down. Guys like Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino and Chase Utley will have to do everything they can while on the base paths to disrupt pitchers.

Production from the bottom of the order. Pedro Feliz, projected to hit sixth or seventh, slugged five home runs and drove in 13 runs. Batting eighth will be catcher Carlos Ruiz, who led Phils starters with a .372 batting average, eight doubles and 12 runs scored. Opposing pitchers won’t get a break against this Phillies lineup.

By the way, is anyone else psyched that baseball season is finally here? PLAY BALL!

Is The Bullpen (Gasp) A Strength?

The bullpen has been an annual source of apprehension and tension for the Phillies. Last year’s rag tag group that included veterans like Antonio Alfonseca and Jose Mesa and youngsters like Michael Zagurski and J.D. Durbin somehow managed to keep the ship afloat until Charlie Manuel rode the arms of J.C. Romero, Tom Gordon and Brett Myers to the division title.

I like the prospects for this year’s bullpen. It all starts with the closer, and Brad Lidge seems to be progressing nicely from minor knee surgery. He struck out three batters and got another to foul out during a four-out inning in a minor league game yesterday. Yes, that’s a small first step, but it was definitely a good sign. At this point, missing the first week of the regular season seems like a worst case scenario.

Although Lidge suffered through a couple rough seasons in Houston, he rebounded nicely in the second half last season, using upper 90’s heat to strike out more hitters per nine innings than some guy named Mariano. Lidge is psyched about the change of scenery and finally seems to have turned the corner since surrendering that gargantuan home run to Albert Pujols in the 2005 playoffs.

J.C. Romero was salvaged from the scrap heap and despite occasional control issues, he became a dominant left-handed set-up man. Tom Gordon is healthy and better suited to his current set-up role from the right side as opposed to being a full-time closer. Ryan Madson has developed a nasty little cutter and looks great this spring, picking up where he left off before an injury prematurely ended his 2007 season.

One bullpen spot will most likely be filled by Chad Durbin, a solid journeyman who can give you three or four innings if necessary. The final hole in the bullpen might end up being filled by intriguing Rule 5 pick Travis Blackley, who’s been inconsistent but gives the Phils another lefty option. Other candidates include veteran Clay Condrey and hard throwing Francisco Rosario, both righties.

You don’t want to be forced to stick a rookie on the mound with runners on second and third with no outs. Fortunately, the Phillies bullpen is stacked with veterans who are battle tested in these situations. Not only that, but you have four starters in Hamels, Myers, Kendrick and Moyer who can pitch deep into games on a regular basis. Give me this bullpen over those guys at the other end of the Turnpike any day of the week.

Which Phils Infielder Will Be MVP?

The candidates...

Jimmy Rollins: Anyone who says the reigning MVP didn’t deserve the honor doesn’t understand the meaning of “MVP.” J-Roll is the heart and soul of the Phillies. He became the first player in history to have 30 doubles, 20 triples, 30 homers and 30 steals in one season. He played great defense, appearing in all 162 games when the team was ravaged by injuries. Most importantly, Rollins led the Phillies on an exhilarating run to the NL East crown. Case closed.

It’s possible that Rollins had a career season, but people forget that he’s only 29 and in his prime. There’s no reason why he can’t duplicate those numbers. Sure, we’d love to see our lead-off hitter take more pitches and raise his on-base percentage, but how much more can you ask for?

This award usually goes to the big time, power-hitting run producers, and Rollins still tends to be overshadowed by the two big time run producers on the other side of his own infield. He’s still the heart and soul of the Fightin’s, but it will take another historic season to put a second MVP trophy on Rollins’ mantle.

Ryan Howard: Following his MVP season (58 homers, 149 RBI, .313 batting average), Howard admitted that he got a little caught up in the awards dinner circuit and didn’t prepare for the season as well as he could have. Despite a horrible start, a two-week stint on the disabled list, a 45-point drop in batting average and a major league record 199 strikeouts, Howard still clobbered 47 homers with 136 RBI in 2007.

I expect a historic season from Howard. He came into camp lighter, loose and refocused. He won a $10 million arbitration settlement, which will ultimately lead to an astronomical long-term deal. Pat Burrell is in a contract year and could finally provide decent protection.

Howard hits opposite field home runs with a flick of the wrist. Pitch him inside and someone in the right field upper deck will have a souvenir. He can hit for average. If Howard stays healthy, I can’t see a scenario that doesn’t have Ryan Howard as a legit MVP contender.

Chase Utley: The best second baseman in the majors was on his way to a possible MVP until a broken hand sidelined him for about a month and cut into his numbers. Utley still managed to hit .332 with 22 home runs, 48 doubles and 105 RBI.

Utley has a short, compact stroke that’s a little unorthodox but generates a lot of power. He’s one of those guys you can pencil in for a minimum of .300, 25 HR, 45 doubles, 100 RBI and solid defense. Of course, it doesn’t hurt that Ryan Howard offers better protection than the Secret Service. I expect Chase Utley to be an annual MVP candidate for at least the next five years.

The great thing about this trio is that you can bring your kid to the game and say, “Play like these guys.” They hustle, have fun, and play with respect. As for MVP, my pick is Howard, to the tune of a .300 batting average, 60 homers, 150 RBI. He’s scary good.

Phillies vs. Mets: Starting Rotation

Let’s take a look at the starting rotation of the Phillies and Mets.

Phillies

Brett Myers: His mental make-up is better suited to a closer role, but his stuff and rubber arm are workhorse starter material. The only thing keeping Myers from being dominant rests on his shoulders. If he can stay loose and just hurl, he’ll be part of a devastating 1-2 punch at the top of the Phillies rotation.

Cole Hamels: I firmly believe that Hamels will be as good as or better than Johan Santana… in two years. Arguably the best change-up in baseball, above average fastball and an improving curve. Bad news: He got hurt again last year. Good news: He returned to form without further problems. Hamels is a legit ace, whether he’s the Opening Day starter or not.

Kyle Kendrick: I really don’t think Kenrick is a flash in the pan. He kept his ERA under 4.00 in 20 starts, not five or six. That means hitters didn’t exactly “figure him out,” and he gave the Phillies’ rotation some much needed stability. He doesn’t throw very hard, but he keeps the ball down, a must at Citizens Bank Park. Spring has been rough, but hitters are always ahead of pitchers at this point.

Jamie Moyer: The perfect tutor for the rest of the rotation. Moyer throws about as hard as me, but he might be the smartest pitcher in baseball. He was brilliant in his postseason start and always manages to keep the Phillies in the game. Moyer’s consistency and cool demeanor will be a godsend for Charlie Manuel.

Fill in the blank: Adam Eaton? JD Durbin? Chad Durbin? Travis Blackley? I still like JD Durbin’s stuff if he can develop some consistency, and he proved last year that he can’t pitch out of the bullpen. Chad Durbin is a journeyman better suited to long relief. Blackley is intriguing as a lefty but still a bit of an unknown quantity. I refuse to include Adam Eaton in the discussion. This just in… he still stinks.

Mets

Johan Santana: I wish I could politically spin this into something negative, but I can’t. Moving to a pitcher’s park in the National League, I expect Santana to shave at least half of a run off his ERA. I could analyze his game, but everyone knows how great he is. His biggest obstacle on his way to a Cy Young Award is the Mets offense, which could potentially plague every Mets starter.

Pedro Martinez: Talk about a wild card! Pedro says he’s healthier than he’s been in years. I usually take that statement with a grain of salt in March, but in Pedro’s case, it could mean a return to dominance. He doesn’t blow hitters away anymore, but he still averages a strikeout per inning with a vastly underrated pitching intellect. As always, durability is the big question mark. Even Pedro doesn’t know if he’s good for 25 starts, and he only topped out at 87 mph in a recent simulated game.

John Maine: Which John Maine will show up? The guy who was 10-4 with a 2.71 ERA before the All-Star break, or the guy who had an Eaton-esque 5.53 ERA in the second half? I’m guessing you’ll see an ERA hovering around 4.00, with brilliant outings mixed in with some duds.

Oliver Perez: Another maddeningly inconsistent Mets starter who is prone to occasional wildness (23 walks over five starts from late August into September). His velocity is back in the mid-90’s and he’s in a contract year, so I would expect a better season from Perez than Maine:

Orlando Hernandez/Mike Pelfrey: El Duque somehow gets batters out when he’s healthy, which isn’t too often. Pelfrey isn’t quite the gem that everyone thought he was a couple years ago. These guys won’t set the world on fire, but they’ll keep the Mets competitive.

With the addition of Santana and the Phillies conundrum at the back of the rotation, you have to give the edge to the Mets, although I think the Phillies will be more consistent. Fortunately, the Phillies offense makes any ERA under 5.00 look good. Game on.

Eaton Stinks

Yes, this is a rant.

Adam Eaton flat out stinks. Last year, his 6.29 ERA was the worst starting ERA in the league. 6.29! It's almost unfathomable that a major league pitcher could be so consistently awful over the course of 30 starts.

Let's give plenty of credit to Pat Gillick for a historically stupid signing. Eaton never recorded more than 11 wins in a season, never pitched 200 innings, and never had an ERA under 4.00 at a pitcher's park in San Diego, yet Gillick deemed him worthy of a three-year, $24 million contract.

I will make one positive statement about Adam Eaton. Even HE admitted last week that he's being paid more than what he's worth.

Fast forward to Spring Training. Eaton has been pounded in his two starts. Then, he complained about soreness in his back.

When the Phillies shut down Eaton last year after he complained about a sore shoulder, tests came back negative. Tests on his back this spring have come back negative. Here's another reason why Eaton stinks. He's soft!

Every big league player feels aches and pains towards the end of a grueling season. Every player feels soreness during Spring Training as they get back into shape. Great players fight through it. Those who stink complain about it and make excuses.

I hope Eaton's "soreness" allows another Phillies pitcher to step up and claim the last spot in the rotation, although the Durbins (Chad & J.D.) haven't pitched much better. Travis Blackley is now a legit contenter, while Kris Benson is progressing nicely and could be ready by the end of April.

I don't care what Applebee's says. Eaton ain't good in the neighborhood. He can't pitch in the big leagues. He can't pitch underhand in a beer league softball game. He can't even pitch in a tee ball game.

Phillies, pay Adam Eaton what you're contracted to pay him, but please don't let him bring that stench to the pitcher's mound anymore. He stinks.

End of rant.

Phillies vs. Mets: Everyday Players

This is a great time of year for prognostications, so let’s compare the everyday players for the Phillies and Mets. I hope this rivalry builds and stays with us for a long time.

Catcher
Carlos Ruiz: Solid defense, No. 8 hitter.
Brian Schneider: Solid defense, No. 8 hitter.
Edge: Pick ‘em (yawn)

First Base
Ryan Howard: 105 HR in his first two full seasons.
Carlos Delgado: Once a superstar, now showing his age.
Edge: Phillies

Second Base
Chase Utley: Best in the game, hands down.
Luis Castillo: Good batting average, speed and defense.
Edge: Phillies

Third Base
Pedro Feliz: Great defense, good pop.
David Wright: Best 3B in the game this side of A-Rod.
Edge: Mets

Shortstop
Jimmy Rollins: Backed up his talk with an MVP season.
Jose Reyes: Stopped running out ground balls. Grow up.
Edge: Phillies

Left Field
Pat Burrell: Quietly hit 30 HR with 97 RBI, now in a contract year.
Moises Alou. Older than dirt but can still rake.
Edge: Phillies

Centerfield
Shane Victorino: Great defense and stolen base threat.
Carlos Beltran: Five-tool stud.
Edge: Mets

Right Field:
Geoff Jenkins/Jayson Werth: 40 combined HR is realistic.
Ryan Church: Who?
Edge: Phillies

Yes, I’m a homer, but that’s a legit 5-2-1 advantage for the Phillies. Disagree? Let me hear it! Next up: Pitchers.

Don't Jump Off The Lidge Just Yet

Yes, Brad Lidge injured his knee on his first pitch of Spring Training. Yes, he had surgery on the same knee in October. Yes, it's exactly what the Phillies did not want to hear.

Don't panic. Brett Myers isn't going back to the bullpen.

The damaged part of the knee was removed so it won't be a problem. The rest of the knee is structurally sound. The surgery went well and the prognosis is the same... 3 to 6 weeks. The Phillies won't rush Lidge, so you can probably expect him to miss the first week or so of the regular season. Between Tom Gordon, JC Romero, Ryan Madson and the best offense in the league, the Phillies can certainly cover Lidge for a week or so.

Obviously, the Phillies don't want to suffer through another miserable April, and late inning losses can deflate a team. But hasn't this Phillies team proven to be as resilient as Rocky in the 15th round?

Yes, it's a setback and not a welcome one. But don't jump off the ledge... or Lidge... just yet.

Howard Hits Biggest Homer

No ballpark can contain Ryan Howard. Neither can the courtroom.

Howard won his salary arbitration case when he was awarded $10 million, tying the mark set by Alfonso Soriano when he actually lost his case against the Nationals in 2006.

Why is this Howard's biggest homer? First, it gives the Phillies more incentive to lock up Howard with a long-term deal. If he has another Howard-like year, why bother going to arbitration and when you'll just have to pay him close to $15 million anyway?

Second, it just raised the bar by at least $3 million annually when Howard does negotiate a long-term deal. Before, he may have sought close to $15 million annually. Now, he'll probably seek closer to $20 million. Another MVP season inflates that number even more.

Finally, this was an amicable hearing, but let's face it. While the Phillies claim this hearing was more about determining a fair salary for a player with Howard's service time, not his performance, no player wants to sit in court year after year while his team argues that he doesn't deserve a certain dollar figure.

In a previous blog, I wrote that the Phillies were under no pressure to sign Howard long-term. I stand by that. They can finish this season under the terms of that deal with no problems and no hard feelings. After this season, it'll be time to pony up, and I have no doubt that the Phillies will do it. Sure, Howard emerged from the courtroom with a smile, but I that smile will lose some sparkle if they go to arbitration again.

Kendrick PUNK'D!

Could you imagine? You're 23 and coming off a rookie season in which you solidified the Phillies rotation and started a game in the playoffs. Then your manager and assistant GM tell you that you've been traded to a team in Japan. Classic prank. My favorite part was that Charlie Manuel told Kyle Kendrick that he was traded for a guy named Kobayashi... the hot dog eating champion.

This tells me a few things as spring training gets underway. First, this Phillies team has chemistry and unity. You don't pull off a prank that includes the entire team, the manager, the assistant general manager and the local press unless everyone is on the same page.

Second, this Phillies team is loose. Just like last year, the Phillies had fun playing baseball, even when star after star took turns on the disabled list. They're not worried about Johan Santana. They're not worried about Ryan Howard's arbitration hearing. They're having fun.

Finally, the mastermind behind the prank, Brett Myers, may have finally grown up. Always a hothead with a bad temper, these fun-loving Phils might be rubbing off on Myers. He has the ability to be a 20-game winner, but he needs to maintain an even keel to finally reach his full potential and complete the 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation with Cole Hamels.

Kyle Kendrick, you may have been punk'd, but now you have the right to get anyone in the clubhouse with full immunity. And you helped set the tone for what should be a ridiculously fun season in Philly.

Click here to see the video.

Forget Hearings. It's Baseball Season!

Phillies pitchers and catchers have reported to Clearwater. The Phillies are legit World Series contenders. Jimmy Rollins is talkin' the talk again, predicting 100 wins. A Kris Benson signing, while not Johan-esque, is imminent and could go a long way toward solidifying the Phillies rotation. Okay, maybe I'm reaching.

Unfortunately, while players awaited morning physicals, they were watching Brian McNamee and Roger Clemens compete for the title of Biggest Liar in a colossal waste of taxpayer money. Don't get bogged down in this mess. Regardless of who you believe, both men's reputations are forever tarnished, both will make millions from their future book deals, and baseball won't change it's record books.

Focus on what a great time of year this is. The Phillies, Mets and Yankees are all contenders. Every team is brimming with optimism (except for the Marlins and Pirates). Start buying tickets. Take a weekend trip to Florida to see your heroes up close. Talk trash with other baseball fans. Start planning for your fantasy draft. Try to figure out which Phillies infielder... Howard, Rollins or Utley... will be this season's MVP.

Whoever said December is the most wonderful time of the year clearly doesn't appreciate the beauty of a 6-4-3 doubleplay. It's baseball season, baby!

Pondering Benson & 5th Starter Candidates

The Phillies seem to be a lot more interested in free agent RHP Kris Benson than they've let on. After a ho-hum throwing session in December, Benson has quietly thrown for Phillies scouts twice in the past week or so and has shown enough to start somewhat of a buzz.

Go ahead and sign him. Benson is willing to take a one-year, incentive-laden contract. It gives you another arm at the back of the rotation. Best case scenario: He performs as well as a number three starter. Worst case: He gets hurt, doesn't contribute and you plug in one of the guys who you were prepared to stick at the back of the rotation in the first place.

What are the other options? Chad Durbin has experience as both a starter and reliever, making him ideal for long relief and spot starts. Adam Eaton is better suited for bagging groceries than throwing a baseball. Farmhands like Carlos Carrasco and Joshua Outman are at least a year away from the big leagues.

The darkhorse who nobody seems to be mentioning is J.D. Durbin. He's a cocky former top prospect who had control problems until he stopped trying to throw every pitch through a brick wall. He threw a couple gems last season and has the potential to be solid if he can put it all together. Don't be surprised if J.D. Durbin grabs the last spot in the rotation with a strong Spring Training.

As for Kris Benson, why not? It's a no-lose situation for both sides. After all, your top division rival did just sign a guy named Johan.

Memo to Anna Benson... if you think you were heckled in New York and Baltimore, do not tempt the Phillies Phaithful.

Johan vs. Yo Adrian. Game On.

Johan Santana makes the Mets the clear frontrunners in not just the East, but the entire National League as another high priced, high profile superstar is set to grace Shea Stadium this season. Meanwhile, those poor Phillies… those poor defending division champion Phillies… will go into the season as underdogs.

I love it.

Remember in Rocky II, when Apollo Creed wanted a rematch with Rocky, but Apollo’s trainer, Duke, was against it? “I saw you beat that man like I never saw no man get beat before,” Duke said. “And the man kept coming after you.”

Doesn’t that sound just a tad bit like the 2007 Phillies? Howard, Utley, Myers, Hamels, Victorino, Gordon, Lieber, Garcia, Madson and others all spent time on the disabled list at some point. But the Phillies just kept coming.

These Phillies didn’t whine and stop running out ground balls like Jose Reyes. They didn’t crumble under pressure like Willie Randolph. Charlie Manuel, for all his strategic shortcomings, kept these Phillies loose and playing hard-nosed baseball.

The homegrown core of Rollins, Utley, Howard, Hamels, Myers and Burrell never quit. Instead, they finally developed the clubhouse chemistry that was severely lacking in past seasons. That core remains intact and the chemistry should be even stronger. How’s the chemistry in Flushing? Who’s their leader?

Johan Santana makes the Mets much better. He may even win the Cy Young Award. But don’t pencil in the Mets for the World Series just yet.

Underdog is a great role for this Phillies team, even though they can easily make a case for being the favorite. This just puts more pressure on the Hollywood Mets and gives the Broad Street Phillies even more motivation.

Game on.

By the way, Rocky knocked out the favored Apollo in the 15th round of their rematch, similar to the way the Phillies beat the favored Mets last year to win the division. I know it’s a movie, but I’m just sayin’.

What Platoon?

So much for the platoon at the hot corner. After weeks of speculation, the Phillies and third baseman Pedro Feliz agreed to a two-year, $8.5 million deal that could be worth as much as $15 million over three years.

Phillies fans can’t complain about this move as GM Pat Gillick filled what many perceived to be the only real weakness in the Phillies lineup. Feliz, 33, averaged 22 home runs and 84 RBI with San Francisco over the past four years, and his righthanded bat fits nicely into an already devastating lineup. Expect those numbers to rise when he plays half his games at Citizens Bank Park.

Feliz doesn’t hit for average (.252 career BA), but he provides a major defensive upgrade on a team that relies heavily on groundball outs. With the exception of Ryan Howard, who has made strides defensively but still moves about as gracefully as a hippo, the Phillies will boast one of the best defensive infields in the majors.

Expect the Phillies to wash their hands of free agent bust Wes Helms any day now, while Greg Dobbs returns to the pinch hitting role where he thrived last season.

Two Platoons. No Problem.

Phillies manager Charlie Manuel has been asked if he is concerned about heading into the season with platoons in right field and third base. He seems very content with that proposition, and he should be. While you want everyday players who you can pencil into the lineup without a second thought, a platoon situation helps you get the most out of a relatively weak position. Not only that, but giving more players more at-bats keeps them sharp and better prepares them for pinch-hitting assignments.

Let’s start with right field. Geoff Jenkins, who hit 21 home runs in 420 at-bats last season with Milwaukee, will bat against righthanders and provide a left-handed power bat off the bench. He should at least match those numbers, although adding another strikeout-prone hitter to the lineup is somewhat of a concern. Jayson Werth, a former blue chipper with the Dodgers who more than picked up the slack when Shane Victorino went down last season, will bat against lefties while spelling Victorino in center and Pat Burrell in left. This platoon will prevent anyone from being overworked and should add even more offense to an already potent lineup.

At third base, Wes Helms proved his one solid season is 2006 was a bit of a fluke and found himself on the bench for a good part of last season as Charlie Manuel unsuccessfully tried to find steady production at the hot corner. This year, Helms will bat against lefties. Greg Dobbs, who had some clutch hits for the Phils but faded down the stretch, will bat against righties. Utility man Eric Bruntlett will come off the bench for late inning defense.

Everyone’s role is clearly defined heading into camp. Nobody is battling for a position. This will help with each player’s mental preparation. Back in 1993, Phillies fans were concerned about a Pete Incaviglia/Jim Eisenreich platoon in right. How’d that work out?

Phanatic No. 1. Was There Any Doubt?

In this corner… hailing from the Galapagos Islands… weighing 300 pounds… the Prince of Pranks… the Duke of Dance… and now, officially, the Top Mascot in Sports… the Phillie Phanatic! Rankings were recently released at Forbes.com.

The runner-up, the San Diego Chicken, is so yesterday, while the Phanatic is more popular and charismatic than ever. The lovable green giant, who turns 30 on April 25, still has the power of a rhino, the balance of a tightrope walker and the agility of an Olympic gymnast. Third place goes to Mr. Met. Are you kidding me?! Mr. Met is nothing but a bloated baseball with a Mets cap and the personality of Mitt Romney, and he’s about as much fun as a root canal. Yes, I hate the Mets.

The Phillies suffered through a lot of lean years from the mid-80s through the 90s, with the exception of one World Series run. At times, watching the Phillies was almost as difficult as watching Mr. Met. But fans could always count on the Phanatic to make a day at the ballpark enjoyable, despite the misery on the diamond. I still make it a point to get Blueclaws tickets when the Phanatic makes one his guest appearances. No mascot is as internationally loved as the Phillie Phanatic.

Realize how lucky you are to have him because the Phillie Phanatic is now officially the Top Mascot in Sports. Was there any doubt?

Relax. Howard's A Lifetime Phil

Everyone take a deep breath and repeat after me. "All is fine with Ryan Howard. All is fine with Ryan Howard." Phillies fans seem to be outraged that the big man hasn't received his asking price, or a long-term deal for that matter. The reason? The Phillies don't have to do anything. Howard isn't eligible for free agency until after the 2010 season. The bottom line is the Phillies have more pressing needs, like solidifying the pitching staff and upgrading third base. Word on the street says talks of a long-term deal are in very preliminary stages, but the Phillies hold all the cards here, and there is no sense of urgency to break the bank... yet.

While Phillies brass will never be called big spenders, they do take care of their own. Core players like Brett Myers, Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley have all received multi-year deals before hitting the open market. Sure, the Phillies would be wise to lock up Howard before the market approaches A-Rod proportions, like they did with Utley. His seven-year, $85 million contract was a bargain when he signed it and will look like chump change in a year or two. But again, the Phillies don't have to do anything. A long-term deal will get done by next year at the latest. So relax. Howard will be manning first base and launching balls into the stratosphere for the Fightin's until he hangs 'em up.

Lights Out Lidge... We Hope

The Phillies made one of the underrated trades of the off-season when they acquired closer Brad Lidge from Houston, along with utility infielder Eric Bruntlett. The cost? Michael Bourn, a fourth outfielder with great speed and defense… Michael Costanzo, a solid third base prospect with lots of home runs, lots of strikeouts and lousy defense… and Geoff Geary, a once solid middle reliever who was sent to Triple A last season because he was lit up like a pinball machine.

While this move obviously allows the Phillies to move Brett Myers, who’s better than any free agent starting pitcher available, back into the starting rotation, having Lidge at the back of the bullpen is just as important. Heading into last season, Lidge still hadn’t recovered mentally from the effects of Game 5 of the 2005 National League Championship Series. The Astros were one out away from their first World Series when Lidge served up a three-run moon shot to Albert Pujols of the Cardinals. But Lidge regained his role as closer in mid-2007 and finished with 19 saves and a 3.36 ERA while battling knee problems that seem to have been corrected this off-season.

Lights out closers with 100-mph heat are not easy to come by. While Brad Lidge hasn’t been lights out for two years, he made great strides last season and a change of scenery could return him to his 2005 form. With JC Romero re-signed, Ryan Madson returning from injury and reliable Tom Gordon, the Phillies bullpen, an annual question mark, could be one of the better units in baseball.

Everyone Is Guilty

As baseball commissioner Bud Selig and union chief Donald Fehr were rightfully grilled by Congress yesterday, I couldn’t help but think back to the band of misfits that almost went the distance… the 1993 Phillies. More specifically, I think about Lenny Dykstra, the poster boy for performance enhancing drugs on that Cinderella team. When asked to explain his sudden abnormal muscle growth, Dykstra quipped, “I got some really good vitamins.” We all laughed and moved on. After all, “Nails” was a likeable guy and the personification of those long-haired, tobacco chewin’, beer guzzlin’, prank playin’ Phils. When Sammy Sosa went from solid all-around player to a perennial 60-home run phenom, we all jumped on the bandwagon. When Barry Bonds’ head grew (yes, his head got larger) and he put up superhuman numbers when he should have been in decline, we cheered his home runs and gave him the approval he so desperately craved.

While any player who uses performance enhancing drugs deserves to be punished, let’s not forget the blind eye turned to this practice at the time by owners, managers, trainers, players, the commissioner, union leadership, the government and millions of fans. When you see these hearings, temper your outrage and take a look in the mirror. More importantly, appreciate the achievements of clean players like Ken Griffey, Alex Rodriguez (unless you believe Canseco), Frank Thomas and Ryan Howard. Finally, let’s hope baseball finally gets it right and agrees to a testing program for HGH so we can end this sad era in baseball once and for all.

Historic Howard?

Don’t be surprised if Ryan Howard reaches historic numbers this year. Following his MVP season in 2006 (58 HR, 149 RBI, .313 BA), Howard admitted that he got a little caught up in the awards dinner circuit and probably didn’t prepare for the 2007 season as well as he could have. This may have factored into an awful start, a two-week stint on the disabled list, a 45-point drop in batting average and a major league record 199 strikeouts.

Still, Howard was anything but disappointing, mashing 47 homers with 136 RBI. Just think about what a refocused off-season could mean for Howard. It can’t hurt that Pat Burrell will be extra motivated, playing in the final year of his ridiculous contract (Houston, you'll love Ed Wade). Burrell could finally provide some legit protection batting behind Howard. Remember, this will only be Ryan Howard’s third… yes, third… full season in the big leagues, which means he'll probably get even better. Pitchers, be afraid. Very afraid.

42 Days And Counting

42 days until pitchers and catchers report… The Phillies will look smart for not matching the five-year contract received by CF Aaron Rowand, who will be forever remembered for crashing face first into the previously unpadded centerfield wall of Citizen’s Bank Park. His defense was courageous yet reckless, which is why Phillies brass deemed a five-year commitment too risky for the 30-year-old. Rowand’s fire and energy will be missed in the clubhouse, but Shane Victorino’s range and rifle arm may prove to be a defensive upgrade. Rowand is coming off a career year offensively, but do you think the Phillies are really concerned about their ability to produce runs?