Friday, April 25, 2008

Bad Time Charlie, Part Deux

While Charlie Manuel will never be confused with an Ivy League scholar, he is a major league manager with a postseason resume. I know for a fact that he does have some level of baseball acumen. If that’s the case, why in the name of all that’s reasonable would you call upon Ryan Howard and his batting average that’s comparable to Shane Victorino’s weight to pinch hit late in a tight game when that experiment failed the day before???

The Phillies are leading 6-5 in the eighth inning. Greg Dobbs, an accomplished pinch hitter, leads off with a walk. This is when you play small ball and manufacture an insurance run. Send someone to the plate who can make contact or lay down a sacrifice bunt if necessary to move the runner into scoring position.

What does Charlie Manuel do? He brings in Ryan Howard and his 34 strikeouts to pinch hit. What does Pirates manager and former Phillies minor league manager John Russell do? He motions to the bullpen, touches his left arm, and hands the ball to lefty Damaso Marte. Sure, Marte entered the game with an 8.38 ERA, but it didn’t matter. He could have placed the ball on a tee and Howard wouldn’t have been able to hit it. The obvious result? Strikeout number 35 on a slider low and away. Deja-damn-vu!

Sometimes Charlie Manuel is like the lab rat that repeatedly shocks itself when it thinks it’s grabbing a piece of cheese. It didn’t work last time. Howard hasn’t been hitting all season. His confidence is at an all-time low. After these two pinch hitting debacles, do you think Howard has cleared his head after not starting back-to-back games? Now what do you do? Stick him back in the lineup and hope his hitting ails have been cured?

Fortunately, the Phillies bullpen combo of Gordon-Romero-Lidge was brilliant and held the Pirates scoreless to preserve the 6-5 win. I guarantee that Manuel would be under much more scrutiny if the Phillies lost either one of these games. There are good times and bad times for using Ryan Howard as a pinch hitter. This was another bad time, Charlie!

Thursday, April 24, 2008

Bad Time Charlie

What’s a good remedy for the worst slump of a young slugger’s career? If you ask Phillies manager Charlie Manuel, you tell him that he’ll have a game or two off so he can clear his head. But instead of letting him sit, you send him up to pinch hit in a 1-1 game, on the road, to lead off the eighth inning!

The result was predictable. Ryan Howard, not accustomed to a pinch hitting role and batting well below .200, promptly struck out. If you want Howard to snap out of his funk, this was a bad time, Charlie! Why didn’t you just tell him to lie down in the dugout and give him a swift kick in the ribs? That may have been less painful than his 33rd strikeout of the season.

If the game is tied late, wouldn’t it make sense to lead off the inning with a guy who’s more likely to make contact and get on base? Instead, you put your slumping slugger into a pressure situation and send his batting average and confidence even further south of the Mendoza line. If you’re going to give Howard a couple days off to clear his head, let him clear it! Don’t fill it with more doubt!

Fortunately, the two guys who have carried the Phillies offense, Chase Utley and Pat Burrell, provided the necessary offense later in the inning to give the Phillies a 3-1 win over the Brewers in Milwaukee.

This move made about as much sense as using Geoff Jenkins, another strikeout artist, as a pinch hitter when contact is a must in a close game. This has already happened more than once this season.

I think Manuel has held up incredibly well under the pressure from Philadelphia fans and media while keeping his players loose, but his in-game decisions continue to boggle my mind. For future reference, if a guy is in a ridiculous slump, don’t send him to the plate as a pinch hitter in the eighth inning of a tie game on the road. It’s a bad time, Charlie!

Monday, April 21, 2008

Howard Flounders, Fans Sour

There’s no shame in getting shut down by Johan Santana. That’s exactly what happened Friday to Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard, who went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts. Saturday, it was Oliver Perez, a solid big league lefty, along with lefties Pedro Feliciano and Billy Wagner. The results? 0-for-5, three strikeouts. Visible frustration. Unfamiliar boos. Another loss to the Mets.

The big guy finally broke through Sunday night with a single against righthander Mike Pelfrey as the Phillies salvaged the final game of the series, but the totals for the three-game set were ugly. 1-for-13, six strikeouts.

Howard admits that he’s uncomfortable at the plate right now and the Phillies have faced their share of tough lefties. The season is still young and there’s plenty of time to turn things around, as he did last year after an awful start and a trip to the disabled list.

This is a little different though. I was there Saturday night and I don’t recall another time when Ryan Howard was heartily booed. The stakes are obviously higher when the Phillies play the Mets. Just ask the group of idiots in the stands on the first base side who were removed in handcuffs for fighting in the ninth inning.

Howard isn’t just fanning at breaking balls low and away. He’s swinging and missing at fastballs right down the middle. With Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino already sidelined, Charlie Manuel is already struggling to fill those spots in the batting order and can’t afford to give Howard a day off. With those two table setters missing, Howard isn’t batting with runners in scoring position as much, but pitchers are still going right after him… and winning. By the way, the Phillies don’t have a day off until next Monday.

I’m confident that Ryan Howard will snap out of it, but big time hitters find a way to do damage against both righties and lefties. Against a steady dose of lefties on Saturday, lefty hitting Chase Utley, an admittedly different kind of hitter with a more level swing, hit a home run, a single and just missed another home run when he took a Billy Wagner offering to the wall in centerfield.

Big time hitters also respond to adversity. For the first time in his career, it looks like the pressure may be getting to Ryan Howard. Things have always come easy to him, but not now, not when the Phillies need an extra jolt of offense without Rollins and Victorino. Howard is noticeably upset and so are the fans. How he responds to this slump, both on and off the field, will be very telling.

Sunday, April 13, 2008

Hamels On Doorstep Of Elite Status

Major League Baseball doesn’t have many truly elite pitchers. Johan Santana, Jake Peavy and a handful of others. This list could start an endless debate, so I’m not going there. My point is that this list will have a new member soon.

A few weeks ago, I said Cole Hamels would be as good as or better than Johan Santana in two years. I think I grossly underestimated Hamels’ ascension.

The Phillies knew Cole Hamels was destined for greatness from the time he stepped on a mound. In his debut with the Class A Lakewood Blueclaws here at the Jersey Shore, Hamels went five innings, surrendering one hit and two walks while striking out eight.

But his runaway train to the majors was derailed more than once. Elbow soreness caused Hamels to miss all but four starts in 2004. During the offseason, he broke his hand in a bar fight. In 2005, he was shut down for the season in July with back spasms after being promoted to Class A Reading.

Hamels learned two valuable lessons. First, if you want to even make it to the big leagues, grow up and get your head straight. Second, make sure you’re physically prepared or you’ll have a short career.

Hamels returned to full strength in 2006 and again dominated the minors for a month before receiving his call to the big leagues. His career minor league numbers: 14-4, 1.43 ERA, 273 strikeouts in 195.1 innings.

His major league debut was strikingly similar to his Blueclaws debut. Five innings, one hit, seven strikeouts, five walks. Another lesson learned. Big league hitters don’t hack at those pitches outside the strike zone that whiffed minor leaguers, so you need to be more precise with your location. Hamels struggled early, but went 7-3 with a 2.70 ERA in his final 12 starts to show a glimpse of what he could do.

A lot of things came together in 2007. An All-Star appearance. An improbably post-season run. 15-5 with a 3.36 ERA. But a left elbow strain sidelined Hamels for a month and again prevented him from truly breaking out. Fortunately, he showed know ill effects upon returning from the disabled list, pitching eight scoreless innings and striking out 13 in his final regular season start.

The 2008 numbers through three starts are brilliant. 2-1, 0.82 ERA, 22 IP, 15 K. But those numbers don’t tell the whole story. After last night’s performance (7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 5 K, 2 BB), Hamels said he “lucked out” and Cubs hitters allowed him to “get away with a poor game,” so he’ll have to work harder. This is a far cry from the cocky kid who got in a bar fight after possibly taking his immense talent for granted.

The biggest speed bump for Cole Hamels on the way to elite status has always been Cole Hamels. That speed bump is gone. Yes, he has an injury history, which will dog him until he completes a season unscathed… although legend has it that his knee buckling changeup actually became even better after he broke his left arm as a junior in high school. The handful of elite major league pitchers will have a new member by season’s end. Hamels is on the doorstep.

Friday, April 11, 2008

Woe-Phil Without Rollins & Other Nuggets

No, he’s not your prototypical leadoff hitter. His on-base percentage is below average. He doesn’t work the count enough. He doesn’t walk nearly enough. But anyone who says Jimmy Rollins is not the catalyst of the Phillies’ offense obviously wasn’t watching the last two nights.

You can’t expect Eric Bruntlett to fill Rollins’ custom made spikes, but he went 1-for-10 in two games and made two ugly, costly errors Wednesday night. The Phillies are obviously a much more confident team with Rollins at the top of the lineup. He gives this team its swagger. And in case you forgot, he’s the reigning N.L. MVP. It’s only two games, but the Phillies need Rollins in the lineup and at his best to make the offense jump from dangerous to lethal.

Round 1 of Phillies vs. Mets goes to the home team after a questionable call to end the game that was probably too close to seriously protest. The Phillies need Rollins and the Mets need to find a reliable arm in a very shaky bullpen. Rollins will be back soon, but where is that bullpen arm for the Mets?

Kyle Kendrick needs a few personal tutoring sessions with Jamie Moyer. Moyer teaches young pitchers to try to hit a target whenever they throw a baseball, whether they’re on the mound, in the bullpen or playing catch in the outfield. Kendrick’s location has been off all spring, culminating with six walks in the first two innings of Wednesday’s loss to the Mets. Fortunately, when he does make hitters swing, he’s not giving up big hits and somehow manages to pitch out of jams. More importantly, Kendrick never gets rattled. I still think he can be a solid number three behind Hamels and Myers for years to come.

Expect to see more of catcher Chris Coste as the season progresses. Like John Kruk has pointed out, pitchers love throwing to Coste. He calls a great game, he’s better defensively and he has a knack for clutch hits. For example, when Kendrick was struggling with his control, he was ahead in the count and Carlos Ruiz called for a fastball and set a letter high target. Kendrick, a sinkerballer who works the corners and the knees, has at least three better pitches than that for putting hitters away.

Shane Victorino’s early season struggles can be summed up in two words: Davey Lopes. Nobody embraced Lopes’ instruction in the batter’s box and on the basepaths more than Victorino. Rollins’ ankle injury, while not serious, now puts more pressure on Victorino to make things happen. He looks lost at times without the presence of Lopes, who is recovering from prostate cancer surgery. On the positive side, Victorino’s brilliant defense in centerfield has made his offensive slump more tolerable.

I love the Phillies bullpen. J.C. Romero has yet to give up a run. Neither has Rudy Seanez, who was salvaged off the scrap heap like Romero. Chad Durbin has been solid. Tom Gordon had an awful Opening Day debut and gave up the winning run last night, but he’s still reliable. Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge are both healthy. Lefty Steve Kline, another reclamation project, has been signed and could give the Phillies another option from the left side. I can’t figure out why the Mets aren’t taking a chance on guys like these.

Two solid outings and no wins for Adam Eaton. Last year, Eaton somehow managed 10 wins and a .500 record with a 6.29 ERA. Life has a way of evening things out, don’t you think? I’m still in shock but very encouraged by Eaton’s performance thus far.

Sunday, April 6, 2008

Eaton Good In The Neighborhood

Adam Eaton's first start of the season Saturday began ominously.

Eaton walked leadoff batter Corey Patterson on four pitches, and Patterson eventually scored. After the first inning, the Reds led 1-0.

Another walk in the second inning contributed to another run. After two, the Reds led 2-0.

Was anyone else having flashbacks to 2007? 6.29 ERA, worst in the league among starters. Phantom injuries. Nightmares of an asenine three-year contract at more than $8 million per year. Eaton was about to completely unravel... again.

What ensued could be compared to turning water into wine. 16 of 18 batters retired. 78 pitches through seven innings. Sure, he gave up a game-tying home run to Patterson in the eighth inning and the Phillies went on to lose the game, but Adam Eaton was darn near dominant.

Last year, Eaton pitched at least seven innings exactly four times in 30 starts. On this day, he went 7 2/3 innings and gave up three earned runs. I just pinched myself.

Yes, Adam Eaton's contract is still ludicrous for a pitcher who never really had a good season. Yes, it's way too early to proclaim Adam Eaton a Cy Young contender. And yes, deep down, I can't help but think that he still stinks. But for one day, Eaton was good in the neighborhood, and some Phillies fans are now, dare I say, optimistic with regards to Adam Eaton.

Friday, April 4, 2008

Phillies Opening Series Notes & An Ode To Pedro

I remember driving home from Phillies Opening Day last year after they lost to the Braves. Some Phillies fans were already calling radio stations and demanding Charlie Manuel’s firing. Gotta love the passion, but let’s take a deep breath. It’s waaay to early to pass judgment on any team. Here are some observations after the Phillies opening series against the Nationals, along with an ode to poor Pedro.

· It was good to see the Phillies bang out 16 hits in the series finale after being held to one hit by Tim Redding (yes, Tim Redding) the night before. You love to see this lineup go deep, but when 13 of the 16 hits are singles, including seven in a row, you know that Phillies hitters are taking what pitchers give them instead of swinging for the fences. That’s a good thing.

· Everyone’s favorite feel-good story, catcher Chris Coste, went deep for the Phillies yesterday. I really think Coste and starting catcher Carlos Ruiz will provide quite a bit of pop from the eighth spot in the batting order.

· Pitching in a tough loss on Wednesday, Cole Hamels proved that pre-season pitching numbers don’t mean squat unless you’re competing for a job. He could give Johan Santana a run for the Cy Young Award this year.

· News flash… no lead is safe against the Phillies offense. They can put six on the board in a hurry, so opposing managers will have to be extra careful with their bullpen choices when they think a game is in hand.

· I won’t kill Charlie Manuel for pulling Brett Myers for a pinch hitter after five innings and 86 pitches on Monday. Myers clearly didn’t have his best stuff and the Phillies had a runner on base. But Manuel is notorious for pulling his starters anytime after five innings when the Phillies are behind, or when they get anywhere near 100 pitches. They’re your starters for a reason, Charlie. Let them take you deep into games, especially Myers and Hamels, even if it means occasionally letting them hit with runners on base in tight games.

· Ode to Poor Pedro: I was scoffed at when I said Pedro Martinez is now a six-inning pitcher who is guaranteed to miss at least five starts. He may meet that quota by early May. I don't relish any player's injury, but let’s face it. Pedro was once a great pitcher, but he’s never been a gym rat and hamstring injuries tend to linger. The best the Mets can probably hope for from Pedro and their other ancient starter, Orlando Hernandez, is to get 15-20 starts from each of them and have them healthy for the post-season if the Mets get there. And that’s a big IF. The Mets have no depth and question marks throughout the lineup, and I have a feeling they could have trouble keeping their collective heads above water. I’m not writing off the Mets. I’m just not sold on them as a “can’t miss” contender.