Friday, July 18, 2008

Blanton Will Help, But Myers Is Key

Joe Blanton is not Rich Harden or CC Sabathia. He also doesn’t come with a price tag that includes Carlos Carrasco, Lou Marson or Shane Victorino. Joe Blanton will help stabilize the Phillies rotation and finally allow Charlie Manuel to banish the awful Adam Eaton to Clay Condrey territory in the Phillies bullpen. Joe Blanton is a mid-season pick-up in the mold of Kyle Lohse and Jamie Moyer, an unspectacular yet reliable innings eater who keeps the ball down and won’t give games away every fifth day.

By the way, hats off to GM Pat Gillick for showing restraint, especially during his swan song, when the remaining trade options weren’t worth the cost. Carrasco could claim a spot in the Phillies’ 2009 rotation. Lou Marson has a shot to be catching at Citizens Bank Park next year. J.A. Happ, fresh off a 12-strikeout performance at Triple A last night, seems to be finally putting it all together. Even 2007 first-round pick Joe Savery have been pitching well lately at Clearwater. Including any of these players in a trade for a rental like Erik Bedard or A.J. Burnett would have been a mistake. Joe Blanton is under contract through 2010 and is a virtual lock for 200-plus innings.

While Blanton is a solid addition, the key to the Phillies’ postseason dreams is still Brett Myers. Cole Hamels is clearly the ace, but it’s Myers who must step up and become a big-time number two. Myers is better than Blanton, Jamie Moyer and Kyle Kendrick and has the God-given ability to throw a gem anytime he takes the mound. Unfortunately, his head makes him just as likely to throw a fit. He needs to regain some of that cockiness and swagger that made him so effective in the past and stop acting as if every pitch is Armageddon.

The strikeout prone Phillies offense has shown it can be shut down, and teams don’t come back from seven or eight run deficits in the playoffs. If Brett Myers doesn’t become the second part of a strong one-two punch, the Phillies could be in trouble if they make it to October baseball. I still think the Mets and Marlins have too many holes to contend all season. Pedro Martinez is hurt again and trade options are limited because the Mets farm system is paper thin, while the Marlins just don’t have the cash. However, the Phillies could be looking at a repeat of last year’s postseason without the successful return of Brett Myers.

Sunday, July 6, 2008

Lidge Extended, Myers' Fate Sealed?

The Phillies broke one of their own unwritten rules with a mid-season contract signing, locking up closer Brad Lidge to the tune of $37.5 million over three years. “Lights Out Lidge” has returned in a big way with 19 saves in 19 opportunities, 47 strikeouts in 35 innings and a 0.77 ERA.

I love this signing for a number of reasons. First, truly dominant closers are a rare breed and every championship team has one. Second, this is a “safe” Pat Gillick contract… high dollars, but a relatively short-term commitment, similar to the contract offered to Aaron Rowand. Chase Utley’s seven-year deal is a rare exception and the $12 million per year average is already a bargain for the annual MVP contender.

Finally, this officially closes the door on Brett Myers returning to the closer role in Philadelphia, regardless of how much he craves it. While Myers was brilliant down the stretch last season, he just doesn’t compare to Lidge. Myers had a 2.87 ERA as a reliever. Very solid, but hardly dominant for a top tier closer. Myers doesn’t throw as hard as Lidge, whose slider also happens to be one of the nastiest pitches in major league baseball.

While the struggles of Myers this season have been well-documented and his contract may scare away some teams ($8.5 million this season, $12 million next season), he could be included in a package for a top flight starter. Just 27 years old with a rubber arm, Myers is a relatively low risk, high reward player. He has a few solid big league seasons under his belt and could easily return to form with a change of scenery, much like Brad Lidge. He has the tools to be a solid number two or three starter, but would likely perform better as a closer, if only because of his attitude and temperament.

The Phillies don’t have the prospects to land C.C Sabathia or Rich Harden, or the desire to meet what will surely be Johan-esque contract demands by Sabathia. However, they could get creative and may have other starters on their radar. Think Erik Bedard or A.J. Burnett, although both would come with health concerns. Roy Oswalt could be an outside possibility, but Houston GM Ed Wade is still licking his wounds from the Lidge trade and owner Drayton McLane says the team won’t be broken up. With Oswalt's $15 million-per-year price tag through 2011, that could always change.

I honestly hope Myers regains his footing at Triple A and returns to the rotation because he has so much natural ability and he’s a homegrown Phillie. But now that Lidge will be closing games until 2011, if the Phillies can use Myers to acquire a top flight starter, I’ll be first in line to cut the cord.