Sunday, March 30, 2008

Maybe The Phils Should Concede. Or Not.

With everything I’m hearing from the so-called experts about the mighty Mets, the defending NL East champion Phillies should just stay home. Some pundits even predict the Phillies can’t keep up with the Braves.

Yes, the Mets added Johan Santana, the best starting pitcher in baseball. News flash: While this move will surely improve the Mets, it was an act of desperation by a GM who realizes the window is quickly closing on this aging, fragile team’s chance to win a World Series.

Besides Santana, the Mets added Ryan Church and Brian Schneider. Think the fans in Flushing would like to see Lastings Milledge, the formerly untouchable prospect who once could have been traded for top flight starting pitching, manning one of the corner outfield positions right about now?

Meanwhile, the Phillies made a huge upgrade offensively and defensively at third base with Pedro Feliz. They’ll replace Aaron Rowand’s career year on offense with Geoff Jenkins and Jayson Werth, while Shane Victorino has a better arm and more range in centerfield.

Say what you want about the Phillies rotation, but the Mets have nothing but question marks after Johan Santana. The Phillies didn’t have the prospects or resources to acquire and sign Santana, so they traded for Brad Lidge and put Brett Myers, who is better than any free agent pitcher that was available, back in the rotation. With Cole Hamels, the Phillies now have two young studs forming a formidable 1-2 punch that every playoff team has at the top of the rotation, while Pedro Martinez is a six-inning pitcher and a lock to miss at least five starts.

Kyle Kendrick went 10-4 with a 3.84 ERA over 20 starts, including many at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park. Jamie Moyer is still very steady, he pitched a gem in the playoffs when it mattered most, and he’s valuable off the field as a mentor to the younger pitchers. I'll take that kind of consistency over John Maine and Oliver Perez, who pitch like Tom Seaver one day and Mike Seaver (Growing Pains) five days later.

The Mets are as durable as a wet tissue. Moises Alou gets his mail at the hospital. Carlos Delgado became old overnight. Luis Castillo has two bad knees. Even Carlos Beltran had offseason surgery on both knees and hasn’t batted over .276 in the last four seasons. Brad Lidge is the only injured Phillies player and he’s being temporarily held back as a precaution.

By the way, the Phillies offense is downright scary. The Mets offense isn't even average. The only people scared by the Mets offense are Mets lovers, and not in a good way.

Finally, people who say team chemistry is overrated must be blind. The Phillies wouldn’t have finished above .500 last season without the chemistry that developed after the All-Star break, and the Mets wouldn’t have collapsed if they had an ounce of it. I’ll always remember the Phillies coming back from injury after injury, and Jose Reyes getting reamed for not running out a ground ball.

I could go on and on, but I’ll take Broad Street over Broadway this season and for the next five seasons as the Phillies again use their underdog status as extra motivation. Keep reading your press clippings, Mets fans.

Friday, March 28, 2008

Spring Training Notes & Observations

Random Phillies observations from Spring Training that could prove to be significant as the regular season gets underway…

1-2 punch. Brett Myers seems locked in as he returns to a starting role, posting a sparkling 1.13 ERA and holding the Yankees scoreless for five innings in his final spring start. Myers has always had dominant stuff and may finally be putting it all together. Cole Hamels didn’t dominate, but he stunk last year during the pre-season and did just fine. Phillies fans couldn’t ask for much more at the top of the rotation. As for the bottom of the rotation…

Eaton still stinks. Adam Eaton teased us with a couple decent outings, then tossed a clunker against the Yankees in the Spring Training finale. I’m praying that Charlie Manuel keeps Eaton on a short leash so the Phillies aren’t giving away games every fifth day.

Starting pitching insurance. Kris Benson accepted a minor league assignment instead of exercising his option to become a free agent and hopes to be ready in May. The Giants did not want to take on the contract of Rule 5 draft pick Travis Blackley, and the lefthander chose to accept a Triple A assignment with the Phillies. Having these two starters on-call will prevent the Phillies from rushing prospects like Carlos Carrasco, Josh Outman and Andrew Carpenter.

Historic Howard? I’ve said before that I think Ryan Howard will put up historic numbers this year. His preseason numbers did nothing to change my mind. .311 BA, 5 HR, 12 RBI. As for those 19 strikeouts…

Swingin’ and missin’. You can pretty much pencil in Ryan Howard for 175 strikeouts, Pat Burrell for 150 and Geoff Jenkins/Jason Werth for 125… and there are others who will have quite a few K’s next to their names on the scorecard. The lineup is devastating, but a strikeout artist can shut them down. Guys like Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino and Chase Utley will have to do everything they can while on the base paths to disrupt pitchers.

Production from the bottom of the order. Pedro Feliz, projected to hit sixth or seventh, slugged five home runs and drove in 13 runs. Batting eighth will be catcher Carlos Ruiz, who led Phils starters with a .372 batting average, eight doubles and 12 runs scored. Opposing pitchers won’t get a break against this Phillies lineup.

By the way, is anyone else psyched that baseball season is finally here? PLAY BALL!

Friday, March 21, 2008

Is The Bullpen (Gasp) A Strength?

The bullpen has been an annual source of apprehension and tension for the Phillies. Last year’s rag tag group that included veterans like Antonio Alfonseca and Jose Mesa and youngsters like Michael Zagurski and J.D. Durbin somehow managed to keep the ship afloat until Charlie Manuel rode the arms of J.C. Romero, Tom Gordon and Brett Myers to the division title.

I like the prospects for this year’s bullpen. It all starts with the closer, and Brad Lidge seems to be progressing nicely from minor knee surgery. He struck out three batters and got another to foul out during a four-out inning in a minor league game yesterday. Yes, that’s a small first step, but it was definitely a good sign. At this point, missing the first week of the regular season seems like a worst case scenario.

Although Lidge suffered through a couple rough seasons in Houston, he rebounded nicely in the second half last season, using upper 90’s heat to strike out more hitters per nine innings than some guy named Mariano. Lidge is psyched about the change of scenery and finally seems to have turned the corner since surrendering that gargantuan home run to Albert Pujols in the 2005 playoffs.

J.C. Romero was salvaged from the scrap heap and despite occasional control issues, he became a dominant left-handed set-up man. Tom Gordon is healthy and better suited to his current set-up role from the right side as opposed to being a full-time closer. Ryan Madson has developed a nasty little cutter and looks great this spring, picking up where he left off before an injury prematurely ended his 2007 season.

One bullpen spot will most likely be filled by Chad Durbin, a solid journeyman who can give you three or four innings if necessary. The final hole in the bullpen might end up being filled by intriguing Rule 5 pick Travis Blackley, who’s been inconsistent but gives the Phils another lefty option. Other candidates include veteran Clay Condrey and hard throwing Francisco Rosario, both righties.

You don’t want to be forced to stick a rookie on the mound with runners on second and third with no outs. Fortunately, the Phillies bullpen is stacked with veterans who are battle tested in these situations. Not only that, but you have four starters in Hamels, Myers, Kendrick and Moyer who can pitch deep into games on a regular basis. Give me this bullpen over those guys at the other end of the Turnpike any day of the week.

Saturday, March 15, 2008

Which Phils Infielder Will Be MVP?

The candidates...

Jimmy Rollins: Anyone who says the reigning MVP didn’t deserve the honor doesn’t understand the meaning of “MVP.” J-Roll is the heart and soul of the Phillies. He became the first player in history to have 30 doubles, 20 triples, 30 homers and 30 steals in one season. He played great defense, appearing in all 162 games when the team was ravaged by injuries. Most importantly, Rollins led the Phillies on an exhilarating run to the NL East crown. Case closed.

It’s possible that Rollins had a career season, but people forget that he’s only 29 and in his prime. There’s no reason why he can’t duplicate those numbers. Sure, we’d love to see our lead-off hitter take more pitches and raise his on-base percentage, but how much more can you ask for?

This award usually goes to the big time, power-hitting run producers, and Rollins still tends to be overshadowed by the two big time run producers on the other side of his own infield. He’s still the heart and soul of the Fightin’s, but it will take another historic season to put a second MVP trophy on Rollins’ mantle.

Ryan Howard: Following his MVP season (58 homers, 149 RBI, .313 batting average), Howard admitted that he got a little caught up in the awards dinner circuit and didn’t prepare for the season as well as he could have. Despite a horrible start, a two-week stint on the disabled list, a 45-point drop in batting average and a major league record 199 strikeouts, Howard still clobbered 47 homers with 136 RBI in 2007.

I expect a historic season from Howard. He came into camp lighter, loose and refocused. He won a $10 million arbitration settlement, which will ultimately lead to an astronomical long-term deal. Pat Burrell is in a contract year and could finally provide decent protection.

Howard hits opposite field home runs with a flick of the wrist. Pitch him inside and someone in the right field upper deck will have a souvenir. He can hit for average. If Howard stays healthy, I can’t see a scenario that doesn’t have Ryan Howard as a legit MVP contender.

Chase Utley: The best second baseman in the majors was on his way to a possible MVP until a broken hand sidelined him for about a month and cut into his numbers. Utley still managed to hit .332 with 22 home runs, 48 doubles and 105 RBI.

Utley has a short, compact stroke that’s a little unorthodox but generates a lot of power. He’s one of those guys you can pencil in for a minimum of .300, 25 HR, 45 doubles, 100 RBI and solid defense. Of course, it doesn’t hurt that Ryan Howard offers better protection than the Secret Service. I expect Chase Utley to be an annual MVP candidate for at least the next five years.

The great thing about this trio is that you can bring your kid to the game and say, “Play like these guys.” They hustle, have fun, and play with respect. As for MVP, my pick is Howard, to the tune of a .300 batting average, 60 homers, 150 RBI. He’s scary good.

Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Phillies vs. Mets: Starting Rotation

Let’s take a look at the starting rotation of the Phillies and Mets.

Phillies

Brett Myers: His mental make-up is better suited to a closer role, but his stuff and rubber arm are workhorse starter material. The only thing keeping Myers from being dominant rests on his shoulders. If he can stay loose and just hurl, he’ll be part of a devastating 1-2 punch at the top of the Phillies rotation.

Cole Hamels: I firmly believe that Hamels will be as good as or better than Johan Santana… in two years. Arguably the best change-up in baseball, above average fastball and an improving curve. Bad news: He got hurt again last year. Good news: He returned to form without further problems. Hamels is a legit ace, whether he’s the Opening Day starter or not.

Kyle Kendrick: I really don’t think Kenrick is a flash in the pan. He kept his ERA under 4.00 in 20 starts, not five or six. That means hitters didn’t exactly “figure him out,” and he gave the Phillies’ rotation some much needed stability. He doesn’t throw very hard, but he keeps the ball down, a must at Citizens Bank Park. Spring has been rough, but hitters are always ahead of pitchers at this point.

Jamie Moyer: The perfect tutor for the rest of the rotation. Moyer throws about as hard as me, but he might be the smartest pitcher in baseball. He was brilliant in his postseason start and always manages to keep the Phillies in the game. Moyer’s consistency and cool demeanor will be a godsend for Charlie Manuel.

Fill in the blank: Adam Eaton? JD Durbin? Chad Durbin? Travis Blackley? I still like JD Durbin’s stuff if he can develop some consistency, and he proved last year that he can’t pitch out of the bullpen. Chad Durbin is a journeyman better suited to long relief. Blackley is intriguing as a lefty but still a bit of an unknown quantity. I refuse to include Adam Eaton in the discussion. This just in… he still stinks.

Mets

Johan Santana: I wish I could politically spin this into something negative, but I can’t. Moving to a pitcher’s park in the National League, I expect Santana to shave at least half of a run off his ERA. I could analyze his game, but everyone knows how great he is. His biggest obstacle on his way to a Cy Young Award is the Mets offense, which could potentially plague every Mets starter.

Pedro Martinez: Talk about a wild card! Pedro says he’s healthier than he’s been in years. I usually take that statement with a grain of salt in March, but in Pedro’s case, it could mean a return to dominance. He doesn’t blow hitters away anymore, but he still averages a strikeout per inning with a vastly underrated pitching intellect. As always, durability is the big question mark. Even Pedro doesn’t know if he’s good for 25 starts, and he only topped out at 87 mph in a recent simulated game.

John Maine: Which John Maine will show up? The guy who was 10-4 with a 2.71 ERA before the All-Star break, or the guy who had an Eaton-esque 5.53 ERA in the second half? I’m guessing you’ll see an ERA hovering around 4.00, with brilliant outings mixed in with some duds.

Oliver Perez: Another maddeningly inconsistent Mets starter who is prone to occasional wildness (23 walks over five starts from late August into September). His velocity is back in the mid-90’s and he’s in a contract year, so I would expect a better season from Perez than Maine:

Orlando Hernandez/Mike Pelfrey: El Duque somehow gets batters out when he’s healthy, which isn’t too often. Pelfrey isn’t quite the gem that everyone thought he was a couple years ago. These guys won’t set the world on fire, but they’ll keep the Mets competitive.

With the addition of Santana and the Phillies conundrum at the back of the rotation, you have to give the edge to the Mets, although I think the Phillies will be more consistent. Fortunately, the Phillies offense makes any ERA under 5.00 look good. Game on.

Friday, March 7, 2008

Eaton Stinks

Yes, this is a rant.

Adam Eaton flat out stinks. Last year, his 6.29 ERA was the worst starting ERA in the league. 6.29! It's almost unfathomable that a major league pitcher could be so consistently awful over the course of 30 starts.

Let's give plenty of credit to Pat Gillick for a historically stupid signing. Eaton never recorded more than 11 wins in a season, never pitched 200 innings, and never had an ERA under 4.00 at a pitcher's park in San Diego, yet Gillick deemed him worthy of a three-year, $24 million contract.

I will make one positive statement about Adam Eaton. Even HE admitted last week that he's being paid more than what he's worth.

Fast forward to Spring Training. Eaton has been pounded in his two starts. Then, he complained about soreness in his back.

When the Phillies shut down Eaton last year after he complained about a sore shoulder, tests came back negative. Tests on his back this spring have come back negative. Here's another reason why Eaton stinks. He's soft!

Every big league player feels aches and pains towards the end of a grueling season. Every player feels soreness during Spring Training as they get back into shape. Great players fight through it. Those who stink complain about it and make excuses.

I hope Eaton's "soreness" allows another Phillies pitcher to step up and claim the last spot in the rotation, although the Durbins (Chad & J.D.) haven't pitched much better. Travis Blackley is now a legit contenter, while Kris Benson is progressing nicely and could be ready by the end of April.

I don't care what Applebee's says. Eaton ain't good in the neighborhood. He can't pitch in the big leagues. He can't pitch underhand in a beer league softball game. He can't even pitch in a tee ball game.

Phillies, pay Adam Eaton what you're contracted to pay him, but please don't let him bring that stench to the pitcher's mound anymore. He stinks.

End of rant.